EAPSI: Hazard Analysis of Deadly Mud Flows at Mt. Ruapehu Volcano, New Zealand

火山泥流，被称为火山泥流，是最致命的火山现象之一，自1700年末以来，全世界已有4万人丧生。S.在陡峭的火山上，火山泥流的速度可以超过200公里/小时，移动超过100公里，并随着它们捕获松散的土壤和岩石而增长到其初始大小的10倍。活跃的Mt。鲁阿佩胡火山，位于新西兰北岛，是世界上？由于火山口边缘有一个湖，它是火山泥流最经常的生产者。自1861年以来，这座火山已经发生了22次火山泥流，其中大部分是在喷发时水溢出火山口边缘时开始的。然而，最具破坏性的事件发生在火山口边缘破裂时，导致大量的水涌出;这样的事件在1953年造成151人死亡。这项研究旨在通过了解构成火山口边缘的岩石的强度并分析可能导致火山口坍塌的可能情况来揭示未来火山泥流的风险。这对于减轻火山上登山者和滑雪者的风险至关重要？在忙碌的日子里，可以达到10,000多人。这项研究将与新西兰基督城的坎特伯雷大学实验火山学的主要研究人员本·肯尼迪博士合作进行，研究的目标是：（1）了解构成火山口边缘的岩石在应变事件中的应力和应变如何演变，以及（2）使用计算模型确定火山口边缘破裂的概率。具体来说，地震波将脉冲通过岩石样品在循环应力实验，以确定材料？在重复加载事件（如火山口湖水位上升和地震）期间，然后，这些材料特性将用于二维和三维数值模型，以模拟此类事件。这将揭示火山口边缘稳定性中最具影响力的变量，火山口边缘可能崩溃的情景，以及未来可能的火山泥流的大小和方向。对于生活在火山活动频繁的地区，如美国雷尼尔山（Mount Rainier）的居民来说，了解火山物质的行为可以改善灾害监测，最终降低与危险火山现象相关的风险。东亚和太平洋夏季研究所（East Asia and Pacific Summer Institutes）项目下的这一奖项支持美国研究生的夏季研究，由NSF和新西兰皇家学会共同资助。

Volcanic mud flows, termed lahars, are among the deadliest of volcanic phenomena, having killed 40,000 people worldwide since the late 1700?s. On steep volcanoes, lahars can exceed speeds of 200 km/hr, traveling over 100 km and growing up to 10 times their initial size as they ensnare loose soil and rock. The active Mt. Ruapehu Volcano, located on the north island of New Zealand, is one of the world?s most regular producers of lahars due to the presence of a lake in its crater rim. Since 1861, 22 lahars have occurred at this volcano, most of which initiate when water overflows the crater rim during eruptions. However, the most destructive events occur when the crater rim breaks, causing a massive outpouring of water; such an event killed 151 people in 1953. This study aims to reveal the risk of future lahars by understanding the strength of the rock that composes the crater rim and analyzing possible scenarios that could lead to its collapse. This is critical for mitigating the risk to climbers and skiers on the volcano?s flanks, which on busy days can reach over 10,000 people. This research will be conducted in collaboration with Dr. Ben Kennedy, a leading researcher in experimental volcanology, at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand.The objectives for the study are: (1) understand how the stress and strain of the rock composing the crater rim evolve during strain events, and; (2) determine the probability of crater rim failure using computational models. Specifically, seismic waves will be pulsed through rock samples during cyclic stressing experiments to determine the material?s susceptibility to damage during repeated loading events (e.g. crater lake water level rise and earthquakes). These material properties will then be used in 2- and 3-D numerical models to simulate such events. This will reveal the most influential variables in crater rim stability, the scenarios in which the crater rim may collapse, and the size and direction of possible future lahars. For people living in the vicinity of active volcanoes prone to lahars, such as Mount Rainier (USA), understanding volcanic material behavior can improve hazard monitoring, ultimately reducing risks associated with dangerous volcanic phenomena.This award under the East Asia and Pacific Summer Institutes program supports summer research by a U.S. graduate student and is jointly funded by NSF and the Royal Society of New Zealand.