EAPSI: A Better Understanding of Shallow, Subduction Zone Earthquakes Through Bayesian Analysis: A Case Study of the 2015 Illapel, Chile Earthquake

2015年9月16日，一场8.3级地震使秘鲁-智利海沟的一部分破裂。这一事件似乎有一个时间上复杂的破裂，近场和远震距离的仪器都很好地记录了这一事件。拟议的项目将应用自适应非线性贝叶斯反演方法来解决最近智利地震的断层破裂，使用从陆地测量和海洋潮汐计和海啸记录中收集的优势数据。这种方法通过对震源区域的数据和模型可分辨性的明确处理，实现了地震破裂的量化。与其他常规方法相比，这种反演方法的好处是，它对测量中的不确定性及其时空可分辨性给予了更高的关注。这导致反演结果提高了置信水平，而不会在网格放置或问题正则化中引入偏差。这项研究将在澳大利亚国立大学地球科学学院进行，导师是Phil Cummins教授。康明斯集团以在地震学和海啸波传播方面的数学和地球物理专业知识而闻名。2015年9月16日，一场大地震袭击了智利中部沿海地区，该地区在过去几十年里经常发生非常大的破坏性地震。对破裂的空间和时间成分的初步分析表明，这一事件本质上是复杂的。与澳大利亚国立大学的研究科学家合作，该项目建议通过使用非线性贝叶斯自适应反演来量化2015年智利地震的滑动。这种方法对所使用的每个测量的不确定性以及它们的空间和时间可分辨性给予了更高的关注。这可以更好地理解地震是如何破裂的，同时最大限度地减少分析师导致的偏差，这可能会极大地改变模型结果。最终，该项目的结果可以更好地了解构造活跃的秘鲁-智利海沟这一地区的地震危险性。该奖项由美国国家科学基金会和澳大利亚科学院共同资助，隶属于东亚和太平洋暑期研究所项目，支持美国研究生进行暑期研究。

On September 16, 2015, a Mw 8.3 earthquake ruptured a portion of the Peru-Chile trench. This event appears to have a temporally complex rupture and was well recorded by instruments both in the near-field and at teleseismic distances. The proposed project will apply an adaptive non-linear Bayesian inversion method to solve for the fault rupture of the recent Chilean earthquake, using the preponderance of collected data from both on-land measurements and ocean based tide gauge and tsunami recordings. This approach results in a quantification of the earthquake rupture through an explicit treatment of the data and model resolvability along a source region. The benefit of this type of inversion method compared to other conventional methods is that it gives a higher level of focus to the uncertainties in measurements and their spatial and temporal resolvability. This leads to an inversion result that has improved confidence levels without introducing biases in grid placement or problem regularization. This research will be conducted at the Australian National University School of Earth Sciences under the mentorship of Professor Phil Cummins. The Cummins group is noted for specialized expertise in seismology and tsunami wave propagation from a mathematical and geophysical perspective.On September 16, 2015, a large magnitude earthquake struck of the coast of Central Chile in a region that has been prone to very large and destructive earthquakes over the past decades. An Initial analysis of the spatial and temporal components of the rupture suggests that this event was complex in nature. In conjunction with research scientists at the Australian National University, this project proposes to quantify the slip from the 2015 Chile earthquake through use of a non-linear Bayesian adaptive inversion. This approach gives a higher level of focus on the uncertainties of each measurement used as well as their spatial and temporal resolvability. This results in a better understanding of how the earthquake ruptured while minimizing the amount of analyst led biases, which can greatly alter the model results. Ultimately, the results of this project allows for a better understanding of the seismic hazard of this region of the tectonically active Peru-Chile trench. This award under the East Asia and Pacific Summer Institutes program supports summer research by a U.S. graduate student and is jointly funded by NSF and the Australian Academy of Science.