EAR-PF: Combining Proxy Records and Model Data to Investigate Changing Flood Risks for the U.S. Atlantic Coast during the Past Millennium

Andra J. Garner博士获得了美国国家科学基金会EAR博士后奖学金，将在罗格斯大学开展研究和教育计划。本次调查将重点研究过去一千年在纽约市（NYC）周边地区发生的洪水事件。该项目有两个目标：(1)评估模拟美国大西洋沿岸风暴潮高度的计算机模型的有效性；(2)研究过去一千年来美国大西洋沿岸洪水风险的变化。第一个目标将通过比较来自美国大西洋沿岸的洪水事件和相对海平面上升的代理记录与来自耦合模式比对项目第五阶段（CMIP5）上个千年模拟的合成热带气旋和风暴潮数据集来实现。为了实现第二个目标，里德博士将从新泽西州联合海滩收集沉积物岩心，为该地区开发一个新的海平面代理记录。这项研究的结果将为高风险地区的沿海适应战略提供信息，为预测和减轻洪水的影响提供方法。与这项工作相关的外展活动将与罗格斯大学的拉坦河计划合作开展，并将在当地高中和本科课程的课程计划中使用该项目的数据。Common Era期间的洪水高度的计算机模拟模型将与代理进行比较，以检查模型结果与沉积物记录之间的不一致性，并探索这些不一致性的可能原因，如模式强迫、模式偏差和内部变率。新的沉积物岩心将用于调查过去一千年来纽约市极端洪水事件的重现期，以及小冰河期后期该地区热带气旋登陆频率增加的潜在原因。

Dr. Andra J. Garner has been granted an NSF EAR Postdoctoral Fellowship to carry out research and education plans at Rutgers University. This investigation will focus on studying flooding events during the last millennium in the area around New York City (NYC). The project has two objectives: (1) to assess the effectiveness of a computer model that simulates storm surge heights along the U.S. Atlantic coast; and (2) to examine changing coastal flood risks for the U.S. Atlantic coast over the past millennium. The first objective will be accomplished by comparing proxy records of flooding events and relative sea level rise from along the U.S. Atlantic coast with synthetic tropical cyclones and storm surge datasets derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Last Millennium simulations. To accomplish the second objective, Dr. Reed will collect a sediment core from Union Beach, NJ, to develop a new proxy record of sea level for the region. Results from this fellowship will inform coastal adaptation strategies in high risk regions, providing methods for predicting and mitigating the effects of floods. Outreach activities associated with this work will be carried out in partnership with Rutgers' Raritan River initiative and will consist of using data from the project in lesson plans for local high school and undergraduate classes. Computer simulations models of flood heights during the Common Era will be compared to proxies to examine inconsistencies between model results and sediment records and explore possible reasons for these inconsistencies, such as model forcings, model biases, and internal variability. The new sediment core will be used to investigate return periods during the past millennium of extreme flooding events in New York City and the potential causes of an increased frequency of tropical cyclone landfalls in the region during the latter portion of the Little Ice Age.