The Distributional Impact of Price Changes over the Business Cycle

消费物价指数计划使用零售价格和消费者支出的数据来评估零售价格如何随着商业周期的冲击而变化。他们试图确定低收入家庭大量消费的商品是否与主要由高收入家庭消费的商品的反应方式不同。我们从以前的研究中了解到，家庭消费的构成随着收入的不同而不同。换句话说，我们知道，贫困家庭消费了更多的一些商品，而收入较高的家庭消费了更多所谓的奢侈品。了解这些商品的价格如何随着宏观经济冲击而变化是很重要的。如果低收入家庭消费的商品在通胀下变得相对更贵，那么通胀就会加剧不平等；高收入家庭看到他们购买的商品的价格相对涨幅较小。这项研究的结果对于理解不平等的原因很重要。它们对货币政策制定者也很重要；研究结果将有助于澄清货币政策的分配效应，也有助于解释货币冲击是如何通过一个封闭的经济体传递的。采购经理人还将通过作为研究助理的工作，培训研究生必要的数据分析方法。采购经理人通过使用条形码水平的零售价格数据和消费者支出数据来研究这些在商业周期中的分布结果。第一部分使用墨西哥的价格和消费者支出数据研究了汇率大幅贬值的分配影响。该项目的这一部分不能用美国的数据来完成，因为美元没有出现大幅和意外的贬值。这项工作对于理解希腊退欧和英国退欧等对汇率具有重大影响的政策的影响是相关的。该项目的第二部分使用来自美国的条形码水平数据，研究商业周期中的相对价格动态及其对不同收入家庭的不同影响。消费物价指数尤其会考虑在经济衰退期间，穷人消费的物品的相对价格会否上升，以及穷人消费的货品是否较具粘性，因而对货币政策较为敏感。

The PIs plan to use data on retail prices and consumer expenditures to evaluate how retail prices change in response to business cycle shocks. They seek to determine whether or not goods that are consumed in large quantities by low-income households respond in a different way than goods consumed primarily by high-income households. We know from previous research that the composition of a household's consumption varies with income. In other words, we know that poor households consume more of some goods, while higher income households consume more of so-called 'luxury' goods. Understanding how prices of these goods change with macroeconomic shocks is important. If goods consumed by low income households become relatively more expensive under inflation, then inflation increases inequality; high income households see a smaller relative increase in the prices of the goods they buy. The results of this research are important for understanding the causes of inequality. They are also important for monetary policymakers; the results will help clarify the distributional effects of monetary policy and also help to explain how a monetary shock passes through a closed economy. The PIs will also train graduate students in the necessary data analysis methods through work as research assistants.The PIs study these distributional consequences over the business cycle by using barcode level retail price data and consumer expenditure data. The first part studies the distributional implications of large exchange rate devaluations using price and consumer expenditure data from Mexico. This part of the project cannot be completed with U.S. data because the dollar has not seen large and unexpected devaluations. This work is relevant for understanding the effects of policies like Grexit and Brexit that carry significant implications for exchange rates. The second part of the project uses barcode level data from the US to study relative price dynamics over the business cycle and their differential impact across households of different incomes. In particular, the PIs will consider whether the relative prices of items consumed disproportionately by the poor increase during economic downturns and whether the poor consume goods whose prices are less sticky and are therefore more sensitive to monetary policy.