RAPID: Plant/pollinator networks in a rare, wet El Nino year

记录气候变化对物种间生态相互作用影响的长期记录很少，但这种类型的信息对于准确预测气候变化的生态后果至关重要。在缺乏长期数据的情况下，另一种方法是研究物种相互作用对快速气候变化的短期变化，并将这些信息与对长期气候趋势的详细了解结合起来。该项目对加州中部沿海地区的传粉者丰度和物种多样性(主要是大黄蜂)和植物开花模式进行了详细的研究。这一地区经历了日益严重的干旱，平均气温几十年来一直在上升。目前温暖潮湿的厄尔尼诺现象为评估这一传粉者和植物物种系统的反应和恢复能力提供了一个独特的机会。多样性和丰富的传粉物种组合对该地区本土植物物种的维持至关重要。这项研究将为自然保护区的管理提供信息，并将提供有关传粉者如何应对气候变化的重要信息。传粉者对美国农业至关重要。该项目将通过研究生培训和通过讲习班帮助相关栖息地的土地管理者扩大对科学的参与。这项工作解决了三个具体的、可检验的假设：(1)植物开花和传粉者的活动在潮湿的厄尔尼诺年将暂时中断；(2)熊蜂对厄尔尼诺现象中大量延长的开花提供的资源繁荣立即做出反应，但单独的蜜蜂反应将推迟一年；以及(3)传粉者网络在潮湿的厄尔尼诺年将比干旱期间更专门，因为蜜蜂会在花开得多的时候选择更受欢迎的植物种类。在气候变化的背景下，潜在的时间不匹配是一个重要的生态问题。

Long-term records documenting the effects of climate variability on ecological interactions among species are rare, but this type of information is critical to making accurate predictions of ecological consequences of climate change. Lacking long term data, an alternative approach is to examine shorter-term change in species interactions in response to rapid climate shifts, and combine that information with a detailed understanding of long-term climatic trends. This project extends a detailed study of pollinator abundance and species diversity (primarily bumblebees) with plant flowering patterns in coastal, central California. This region had been experiencing an increasingly severe drought, and average temperatures that have been increasing for decades. The current warm, wet El Nino event presents a unique opportunity to assess the responses and resilience of this system of pollinators and plant species. A diverse and abundant assemblage of pollinator species is critical to the maintenance of native plant species in this region. This study will inform the management of nature reserves and will also provide important information on how pollinators, which are essential to US agriculture, respond to climate change. The project will help broaden participation in science through graduate student training, and through a workshop to engage land managers of relevant habitats.The work addresses three specific, testable hypotheses: (1) plant flowering and pollinator activity will be temporally disconnected in the wet El Nino year; (2) bumblebees respond immediately to the resource boom provided by heavy, extended flowering in the El Nino, but solitary bee responses will be delayed a year; and (3) pollinator networks will be more specialized in the wet El Nino year than during the drought, because bees will select more preferred plant species when flowers are abundant. The potential temporal mismatch is an important ecological problem in the context of changing climatic variability.