EAGER: Collaborative Research: Combining Community and Clinical Data for Augmenting Influenza Modeling

该项目代表了及时和必要的探索性工作，评估了社区来源数据在传染病建模工作中的价值。社区生成的数据可能由于缺乏参考人群的信息而受到影响，这妨碍了对患病率的估计。理论上，实时和接近实时的社区来源数据已被认为为提高传染病建模工作的及时性和范围提供了重要机会，但关于社区感染数据在理解、监测和预测方面的价值仍然存在根本问题。为此，这里的工作将研究社区和临床生成的数据如何比较疾病发病率、贡献人口统计数据和流感动态中的时空覆盖范围。向公众传播我们的研究和发现将有助于在数据生成和预测工作方面向公众进行宣传和教育。该项目涉及对急性呼吸道感染的同期社区和临床数据进行严格和系统的比较。这项工作的目标是首先生成一个具有定义参考人群的多样化社区来源数据集。然后，考虑到人口统计学和流行病学因素，我们将评估社区和临床数据中各组结果的重要性。动态建模和贝叶斯推理方法将用于发展和增强疾病预测。将整合来自社区样本的标准化和市政规模估计，数据生成和建模工作将一起用于评估社区数据对实时和近实时模拟和预测的影响。这项高风险工作可能会改变我们在疾病预测方法以及更广泛的社会问题中如何收集和使用数据的模式。

This EAGER represents timely and essential exploratory work assessing the value of community-sourced data in infectious disease modeling efforts. Community-generated data can suffer from lack of information about the reference population, which hinders prevalence estimates. In theory, real-time and near real-time community-sourced data has been recognized to offer important opportunity to improve timeliness and scope of infectious disease modeling efforts, but there are still fundamental questions regarding the value of community infection data for understanding, monitoring and forecasting. Towards this, work here will study how community and clinically generated data compare regarding measures of disease incidence, contributing population demographics, and spatio-temporal coverage in influenza dynamics. Public dissemination of our research and findings will help expose and educate the community in data generation and forecasting efforts.This project involves a rigorous and systematic comparison between contemporaneous community and clinical data on acute respiratory infections. The goal of this work will be to first generate a diverse community-sourced data set with a defined reference population. We will then assess significance of outcomes between groups in community and clinical data, accounting for demographic and epidemiological factors. Dynamical modeling and Bayesian inference methods will be used to develop and augment disease forecasts. Normalized and municipal scale estimates from the community samples will be integrated and the data generation and modeling efforts will together be used to assess the impact of community data on real-time and near-real time simulations and forecasts. The high-risk work can potentially be paradigm shifting regarding how we collect and use data in forecasting methods for disease as well as a broader range of societal issues.