CAREER: Geographic and Temporal Homicide Dynamics 1870-2003

这个项目将研究从1870年到现在美国三个城市凶杀案发生地点和流行程度的历史变化。通过对一个多世纪以来的凶杀案数据进行数字化和地理编码，该项目将创建新的措施来描述凶杀案的地理和时间动态，如凶杀案热点的变化：大小、寿命和发生率。这一定量的历史分析使人们能够探索今天的凶杀案动态是历史模式的延续还是美国社会最近变化的产物。更广泛地说，这个项目将通过测试现有理论是否有助于识别引发或减少凶杀案地点、时间和流行率变化的事件，来推动社会学、法学和犯罪学领域的发展。数据将来自芝加哥、新奥尔良和旧金山的历史档案，该项目将分两个阶段展开。首先，将组建一个研究小组和实验室，对档案材料进行数字化和地理编码。其次，研究小组将使用数字化数据来审查研究问题，包括但不限于：a)凶杀案调查技术的重大科学进步是否降低了凶杀案的发生率？B)侵蚀社区对警察信任的事件是否会引发杀人案浪潮？C)引发集体效能情绪的事件是否会降低凶杀案热点的寿命或发生率？对这些问题将采用比较间断时间序列和回归间断模型等准实验研究方法进行评估。关于更广泛的影响，该项目将通过确定执法和社会服务干预的理想时机和持续时间，帮助城市改善网络和以地点为基础的凶杀案预防工作。同样，识别引发凶杀案浪潮的事件可能有助于城市学习如何预测暴力事件的突然增加。最后，该项目将利用一种新的方法向更广泛的公众传播项目结果。通过与数据可视化科学家以及芝加哥、新奥尔良和旧金山的当地图书馆合作，项目成果将通过展示可视化历史凶杀模式变化的大型地图与公众分享。项目地图和数据可视化将在每个城市的图书馆和画廊展出，以激发公众对凶杀案和预防科学的更大兴趣和认识。

This project will examine historical changes in the location and prevalence of homicide in three U.S. cities from 1870 to the present. By digitizing and geocoding homicide data from over a century, this project will create new measures to describe the geographic and temporal dynamics of homicide such as change in homicide hotspots: size, lifespan, and rate of occurrence. This quantitative historical analysis enables exploration of whether homicide dynamics today are the continuation of a historical pattern or the product of recent changes in U.S. society. More broadly, this project will advance the fields of sociology, law, and criminology by testing whether existing theories can help identify events triggering or diminishing change in homicide's location, timing, and prevalence. Data will come from historical archives in Chicago, New Orleans, and San Francisco, and the project will unfold in two stages. First, a research team and laboratory will be assembled to digitize and geocode archival materials. Second, the research team will use the digitized data to examine research questions including but not limited to: A) did major scientific advances in homicide investigation techniques decrease homicide's prevalence? B) do events that erode community trust in police trigger homicide waves? C) do events that trigger sentiments of collective efficacy diminish homicide hotspots lifespan or rate-of-occurrence? Quasi-experimental research methods such as comparative interrupted time series and regression discontinuity models will be used to assess these questions. With respect to broader impacts, this project will help cities improve network and place-based homicide prevention efforts by identifying the ideal timing and duration for law enforcement and social service interventions. Similarly, the identification of events that trigger homicide waves may help cities learn how to anticipate sudden increases in violence. Finally, the project will make use of a novel method for disseminating project findings to the greater public. Through collaborations with a data visualization scientist as well as local libraries in Chicago, New Orleans, and San Francisco, project findings will be shared with the public through displays of large maps visualizing change in historical homicide patterns. Project maps and data visualizations will be displayed in libraries and galleries in each city to spark greater public interest and awareness about homicide and the science of prevention.