LTER: Resilience in the Environmental Mosaic of the Northern Gulf of Alaska (NGA) Shelf Ecosystem

该奖项将在阿拉斯加北方海湾（NGA）建立一个长期生态研究（LTER）计划。NGA是一个高生产力的亚北极生物群落，强烈的环境变化对低营养级生物和群落动态产生深远影响，直接或间接地支持阿拉斯加标志性的鱼类，螃蟹，海鸟和海洋哺乳动物。在NGA，一个明显的春季水华和持续的夏季生产区域支持一个稳定的基地，能源丰富的浮游动物食草动物和大量的有机物下沉通量，从而有效地转移初级生产的食物链，并有助于碳出口。LTER研究小组将研究驱动这种生产力和全系统复原力的特征、机制和过程，以了解短期和长期气候变化如何通过环境传播影响生物。这一高产生物群落将为LTER网络提供一个有价值的新组成部分，方法是调查受表层海洋变暖趋势影响的区域的海洋生态系统变化，并利用20年前观测提供的强有力的气候背景和丰富的生物物理耦合建模历史，以提前预测生态系统对扰动的反应。为了补充观测和建模工作，NGA LTER包括一个教育推广部分，该部分将制作视频，突出强调从这项研究中获得的理解，以及科学家在海洋相关STEM职业中的活动。这些产品将通过各种高流量场所向公众展示，将被纳入K-12学生的虚拟实地考察，并将提供给LTER网络。NGA LTER计划还将作为一个平台，培养跨学科的研究生和本科生，并在尖端领域和数据分析技术。最后，综合活动将有助于有效的生态系统为基础的管理，在商业上重要的渔业在Alaska.The NGA LTER网站的研究重点将是对过程的机械理解，环境的变化，以及后者在促进高生产力和恢复力的作用。基于先前的知识，研究人员将测试三个假设集中在生态系统的紧急属性：1。在水文循环的变化影响春暖花开生产通过云量的变化，分层/混合平衡，宏量和微量营养素的供应，和运输途径。2.热点的高夏季初级和次级生产的结果从新鲜的阿拉斯加沿岸流和更多的盐近海沃茨之间的相互作用，促进了大陆架形态和区域风;热点的时间和规模将受到水文循环的变化。3. NGA消费者的营养和生活史模式最大限度地减少了营养不匹配，缓冲了低营养级生产的空间和时间变异，并导致面对长期气候变化的恢复力。 研究人员将通过一项综合研究计划来解决这些假设，该计划包括：a）季节性时间序列研究，通过春季至秋季的实地巡航和基于系泊的观测计划来解决短期和长期的环境和生态系统变化，建立并增强苏厄德线时间序列，并利用现有的合作来获得更高的营养级数据; B）过程研究，重点是假设的机制，导致变异和增强的NGA生产的时间和空间; c）建模研究，结合物理和地球化学观测，提供一个框架，用于测试假设，并预测生态系统的反应，预计环境变化; d）数据管理组件，为LTER同事、教育工作者、学生和资源管理人员提供数据可视化和综合的公共平台&。

This award will establish a Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program in the Northern Gulf of Alaska (NGA). The NGA is a highly productive subarctic biome where intense environmental variability has profound impacts on lower trophic level organisms and community dynamics that, directly or indirectly, support the iconic fish, crabs, seabirds and marine mammals of Alaska. In the NGA, a pronounced spring bloom and regions of sustained summer production support a stable base of energy-rich zooplankton grazers and a substantial sinking flux of organic matter, thereby efficiently transferring primary production up the food chain and contributing to carbon export. The LTER research team will examine features, mechanisms and processes that drive this productivity and system-wide resilience to understand how short- and long-term climate variability propagates through the environment to influence organisms. This highly productive biome will provide a valuable new component to the LTER network by investigating marine ecosystem changes in a region impacted by warming surface ocean trends, and by leveraging a strong climate context provided by two decades of prior observations and a rich history of coupled biological-physical modeling to advance prediction of ecosystem response to perturbation. To complement the observational and modeling efforts, the NGA LTER includes an Education & Outreach component that will develop videos highlighting the understanding gained from this research, and the activities of scientists in ocean-related STEM careers. These products will be presented to the public through various high-traffic venues, will be incorporated into virtual field trips for K-12 students, and will be available to the LTER network. The NGA LTER program will also serve as a platform to train graduate and undergraduate students across disciplines and in cutting-edge field and data-analysis techniques. Finally, synthetic activities will aid in effective ecosystem-based management of commercially important fisheries in Alaska.The research focus of the NGA LTER site will be on mechanistic understanding of processes that underlie environmental variability, and the role of the latter in promoting high productivity and resilience. Building on prior knowledge, the investigators will test three hypotheses centered on ecosystem emergent properties: 1. Changes in the hydrologic cycle affect spring bloom production through changes in cloud cover, the stratification/mixing balance, macro- and micronutrient supplies, and transport pathways. 2. Hot-spots of high summer primary and secondary production result from interactions between the fresher Alaska Coastal Current and more saline offshore waters as promoted by shelf morphology and regional winds; hot spot timing and magnitude will be influenced by changes in the hydrologic cycle. 3. Nutritional and life history patterns of NGA consumers minimize trophic mismatch, buffering spatial and temporal variability in lower trophic level production and leading to resilience in the face of long-term climate change. The investigators will address these hypotheses with an integrated research program that includes: a) seasonal time series studies addressing short- and long-term environmental and ecosystem variability through a spring-to-fall field cruise- and mooring-based observational program, building upon and enhancing the Seward Line times series, and leveraging existing collaborations to obtain higher trophic level data; b) process studies that focus on hypothesized mechanisms leading to variability and enhancement of NGA production in time and space; c) modeling studies that incorporate physical and biogeochemical observations, provide a framework for testing hypotheses, and predict ecosystem responses to projected environmental changes; d) a data management component that provides a public platform for data visualization and synthesis by LTER colleagues, educators & students, and resource managers.