Transitional Justice and the Quality of Political Representation: Testing the Empirical Implications of a Formal Model

这项研究调查了前威权精英如何利用前执法机构获得的与他们各自的政权有关的秘密信息。该项目旨在了解这些信息是否可以被用来勒索政客做出政策让步，或者之前未披露的侵犯人权的信息是否会危及新民主国家的生存机会。这一研究路线标志着比较政治学的一个新方向，即审查过渡司法(TJ)和民主代表质量之间的关系。它的重点是旨在审查与独裁政权合作行为的政治候选人的政策，以及过去可能犯下的侵犯人权行为。这一过程被称为清洗。在这方面，揭露过去威权错误的证据，可能会阻止前威权精英影响新民主国家的政策。在初步工作中，首席调查员显示，前威权精英的影响力随着过渡司法的严重程度而下降，但随着选民将政客与前威权政权的参与视为一个重要问题而增加。这项工作还表明，在没有新闻自由的情况下，TJ政策的有效性会降低，因为媒体无法发现让前独裁者获得政策让步的空洞威胁。令人惊讶的是，现任政客和威权精英的继任者之间巨大的意识形态差异，并不影响前独裁者获取此类让步的能力。这项研究将致力于制定更强有力的TJ严重程度衡量标准，以帮助评估过渡司法如何为稳定的民主过渡做出贡献。技术摘要该研究项目将创建两个新的数据集，以测试关于过渡时期司法(TJ)效果的正式理论模型的经验含义。这项研究将分析时间序列的横断面数据，以评估后威权国家的清洗和冲突后国家的真相委员会在民主巩固中所起的作用。其次，这项研究将产生追踪前威权精英在政党和非政治领域的存在的数据。该项目的首要目标是了解提高政治进程透明度的政策如何提高新民主政体的民主代表权的质量。这项研究将阐明伴随过渡司法的制度的重要性，特别是自由媒体，通过证明清洗只有在作者的理论模型中的一组精确的条件下才有预期的效果。这是第一次超越研究法律上的TJ制度而研究事实上的TJ的研究。为了做到这一点，它试图揭露在实施人事TJ后，掌握有影响力职位的威权精英的盛行情况。通过探索揭示秘密威权遗产的价值，它研究了支持TJ的前瞻性论点的逻辑。与支持TJ作为惩罚威权主义错误行为的规范性论点相反，本项目关注TJ揭示真相的方面，并调查这种真相揭示是否增强了民主代表。

General Abstract This research investigates how former authoritarian elites utilize the secret information acquired by the former enforcement apparatus associated with their respective regimes. The project seeks to learn whether such information can be used to blackmail politicians to make policy concessions, or whether previously undisclosed information about human rights abuses can jeopardize a new democracy's chances of survival. This line of research marks a new direction in comparative politics that examines the relationship between transitional justice (TJ) and the quality of democratic representation. It focuses on policies aimed at vetting political candidates for acts of collaboration with the authoritarian regime, and possible human rights violations committed in the past. This process is known as lustration. In this respect, revealing evidence of past authoritarian wrongs may prevent former authoritarian elites from influencing policy in new democracies. In preliminary work, the Principal Investigator shows that former authoritarian elites' influence tends to decrease with severity of transitional justice, but increases as voters view politicians' involvement with the former authoritarian regime as an important issue. The work also suggests that the effectiveness of TJ policies is reduced in the absence of a free press, as the media's inability to uncover empty threats which allows former autocrats to extract policy concessions. Surprisingly, the magnitude of ideological differences between current politicians and successors of authoritarian elites has no bearing on the ability of former autocrats to extract such concessions. This research will work to develop stronger measure of TJ severity to help evaluate how transitional justice can contribute to stable democratic transitions. Technical AbstractThe research project will result in the creation of two novel datasets constructed to test the empirical implications of a formal theoretical model about the effects of transitional justice (TJ). The research will analyze time series cross-sectional data to assess the role of lustration in post-authoritarian states and truth commissions in post-conflict states play in democratic consolidation. Second, the research will generate data that tracks the presence of former authoritarian elites in political parties and in the non-political sector. The overarching goal of this project is to understand how policies that increase transparency of the political process improve the quality of democratic representation in new democracies. This research will shed light on the importance of institutions accompanying transitional justice, specifically a free media, by demonstrating that lustration has the intended effect only under a precise set of conditions in the author's theoretical model. This is the first study that goes beyond studying de jure TJ institutions to study de facto TJ. It does so by seeking to uncover the prevalence of authoritarian elites holding positions of influence following the implementation of personnel TJ. By exploring the value of revealing secret authoritarian legacies, it studies the logic of forward-looking arguments in support of TJ. In contrast to normative arguments in favor of TJ as punishing authoritarian wrong-doing, this project focuses on the truth revealing aspect of TJ and investigates whether such truth revelation enhances democratic representation.