Collaborative Research: Market Based Emissions Policies

摘要本项目资助的研究将评估企业和消费者对旨在改善空气质量和解决环境问题的市场政策的反应。本文的重点是检验从经济理论中得出的假设，即在快速增长的中国经济中，新的环境政策如何影响商业和公众健康。中国即将实施一项新的国家碳排放限额与交易计划。研究小组将收集污染、企业成果和个人健康的创新指标。他们将分析这些数据，以检验团队关于这些政策是否会实现既定目标的假设。由于许多科学原因，预测和理解这些政策的影响很重要。更重要的是，这些政策可能会导致中国制造商面临更高的环保合规成本，这将对全球贸易和美国等已经拥有强大环境控制的国家的制造商的比较优势产生重要影响。因此，该项目将为世界各地的研究人员和负责促进美国经济竞争力的美国政策制定者提供有价值的新证据。缺乏可靠的数据是理解世界的主要障碍。这是美国最具雄心的基于市场的环境政策，使用的数据来自最近实施的全面限额与交易计划。该项目将评估排放量、企业成果和个人健康如何响应这一标志性的环境政策。首先，该小组将对2013年底启动的七个碳交易试点项目进行常规项目评估。使用传统的经验方法，如差异中差异分析，这种分析已经是可行的。其次，他们将在2017年启动的国家计划上线时广泛采取基准措施。第三，他们将收集和评估创新的污染和健康措施，并评估国家？美国早期的国家项目经验。该项目强调分析独立客观的指标，而不是官方的政府措施。区域市场在项目特征上的异质性为识别成功和不成功的项目特征提供了一个实验室。目前正在最后确定有关国家方案的规则，并将对这些规则所提供的查明战略进行评价。

AbstractThis project funds research that will evaluate how firms and consumers respond to market-based policies that are supposed to improve air quality and address environmental issues. The focus here is on testing hypotheses drawn from economic theory about how new environmental policies affect business and public health in the rapidly growing Chinese economy. China is about to adopt a new national program of cap-and-trade emissions policies. The research team will collect innovative measures of pollution, firm outcomes, and individual health. They will analyze these data to test the team's hypotheses about whether or not these policies will achieve the stated goals. Predicting and understanding the effects of these policies is important for many scientific reasons. What is more, the policies could potentially result in Chinese manufacturers facing much higher costs of environmental compliance, which would have important implications for worldwide trade and the comparative advantage of manufacturers in countries such as the United States that already have strong environmental controls. This project therefore will provide valuable new evidence to researchers around the world and policymakers in the United States who are charged with promoting US economic competitiveness.The lack of reliable data are primary obstacles to understanding the world?s most ambitious market-based environmental policy using data from a recently implemented comprehensive cap and trade program. The project will evaluate how emissions, firm outcomes, and individual health respond to this signature environmental policy. First the team will conduct a conventional program evaluation of the country's seven carbon trading pilot programs that were launched in late 2013. This is analysis is already feasible using conventional empirical approaches, such as difference-in-differences analysis. Second, they will extensive baseline measures for the 2017- launch of the national program as it comes online. Third, they will collect and assess innovative pollution and health measures and evaluate the nation?s early experience with its incipient national program. The project emphasizes analysis of independent and objective metrics rather than official government measures. Heterogeneity in the program features by regional market furnishes a laboratory for identifying successful and unsuccessful program features. Rules governing the national program are currently being finalized and will be evaluated for the identification strategies they furnish.