Diagnosis of Simulated Deep Convective Upscale Growth Errors and Their Causes

2018年底在阿根廷中部进行的带电，闪电和中尺度/微尺度过程的遥感与自适应地面观测（RELAMPAGO）和云，气溶胶和复杂地形相互作用（CACTI）实地活动将根据卫星观测研究能够发展成为世界上最高和最大的风暴。这些实地活动将集中大量的环境和雷达观测在地形调节风暴的起始热点位置，在那里成长为更大，更长的寿命，更高的影响系统的个别风暴单体通常发生在靠近起始位置，限制风暴的时间和位置的不可预测性，一直困扰着以前的实地活动采样策略。与RELAMPAGO和CACTI相关的研究重点是提高对拉丁美洲、美国和世界许多其他地区高影响风暴的理解和预测。通过将精心设计的模式模拟与RELAMPAGO和CACTI独特的测量结果进行比较，该项目旨在确定高分辨率天气模式中风暴结构和生命周期偏差的根本原因，以便建立减轻这些偏差的方法。通过这一过程，将确定各种环境因素在控制孤立风暴演变成更具影响力的更大和更长寿命系统的概率和演变方面的相对作用。大型和长寿命的系统比短寿命的单细胞风暴具有更大的社会影响，因为它们与洪水，大冰雹，破坏性大风和龙卷风等高影响天气有关，并且它们对世界许多地区的降雨量有重大贡献。在天气和气候预测模型中更好地体现其发展和生命周期将改善预测，帮助社区做出更明智的决定，限制其负面影响并突出其积极影响。（RELAMPAGO）实地活动，2018年11月1日至12月15日，以及云，气溶胶和复杂地形相互作用（CACTI）实验，2018年8月15日至2019年4月30日，将利用固定和移动的平台提供全面的现场和遥感数据集，能够对阿根廷中部对流风暴内部和周围的热力学、运动学和微物理条件的演变进行高度时空表征。这个位置经历了世界上最强烈和最有组织的对流系统，在Sierras de科尔多瓦地形障碍上有集中和频繁的深对流开始，可预测的对流单体运动，在高地形附近频繁的大规模增长成更大和更长寿命的系统。在这个项目中，深对流大规模增长成更大，将使用RELAMPAGO-CACTI实地活动测量和精心设计的模式模拟集合来检查具有高影响降雨和恶劣天气的较长寿命的中尺度对流系统。潜在的模式误差将涉及到环境的热力学和运动学条件，模式分辨率，和模式参数化的微观物理。潜在的模拟深对流高档增长偏差的原因将进行研究，突出的单独作用（一）环境热力学和运动学，（二）对流草案，微物理和冷池之间的相互作用，和（iii）中尺度环流发展的深对流云系。以下假设将被测试：1。由地形引发的深对流单体发展壮大的概率主要受冷池深度和强度以及中低层垂直风切变和不稳定度的控制.在模拟中，过于强烈和频繁的初始深对流单体与太多的大的，有边的冰产生比观察到的更强或更丰富的冷池，导致比观察到的更频繁的高档增长和过度组织的对流特征。模拟的中尺度气流对潜热加热和冷却分布的偏置响应加强了模式深对流的大规模增长和组织偏置.对流高档增长的偏见是最有限的模拟，最好地再现观察到的对流上升气流的运动学和微物理特性。

The Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) and Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaigns in late 2018 in central Argentina will study storms that are capable of developing into the tallest and largest in the world according to satellite observations. These field campaigns will focus a large number of environmental and radar observations in a topographically regulated storm initiation hot spot location, where growth of individual storm cells into larger, longer-lived, and higher impact systems commonly occurs in close proximity to initiation locations, limiting unpredictability of storm timing and location that has plagued previous field campaign sampling strategies. Research associated with RELAMPAGO and CACTI is focused around improved understanding and prediction of high impact storms in Latin America, the US, and many other locations around the world.Through comparison of an ensemble of carefully designed model simulations with unique RELAMPAGO and CACTI measurements, this project seeks to identify root causes of storm structure and life cycle biases in high-resolution weather models, so that methods to mitigate these biases can be established. Through this process, the relative roles of various environmental factors in controlling the probability and evolution of isolated storms into more impactful larger and longer-lived systems will be established. Large and long-lived systems have much larger societal impacts than shorter lived, single cell storms because of their association with high-impact weather such as flooding, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, and their significant contribution to rainfall in many regions of the world. Improved representation of their development and life cycle in weather and climate prediction models will improve forecasts that help communities make better-informed decisions that limit their negative impacts and accentuate their positive impacts.The Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign, from 1 November to 15 December 2018, and the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) experiment, from 15 August 2018 to 30 April 2019, will provide comprehensive in situ and remote sensing datasets with fixed and mobile platforms capable of high spatiotemporal characterization of the evolution of thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical conditions in and around convective storms in central Argentina. This location experiences some of the most intense and organized convective systems in the world with focused and frequent deep convective initiation over the Sierras de Córdoba orographic barrier and predictable convective cell movement with frequent upscale growth into larger and longer-lived systems near the high terrain.In this project, the probability, timing, location, and morphology of deep convective upscale growth into larger, longer-lived mesoscale convective systems with high impact rainfall and severe weather will be examined using RELAMPAGO-CACTI field campaign measurements and an ensemble of carefully designed model simulations. Potential model errors will be related to environmental thermodynamic and kinematic conditions, model resolution, and model parameterization of microphysics. Causes for potential simulated deep convective upscale growth biases will be studied, highlighting the separate roles of (i) environmental thermodynamics and kinematics, (ii) interactions between convective drafts, microphysics, and cold pools, and (iii) mesoscale circulation development in response to the deep convective cloud system. The following hypotheses will be tested:1. The probability that orographically initiated deep convective cells grow upscale is primarily controlled by cold pool depth and strength coupled with low-mid level vertical wind shear and instability.2. Overly strong and frequent initial deep convective cells with too much large, rimed ice in simulations produce cold pools that are stronger or more abundant than observed, leading to more frequent upscale growth than observed and overly organized convective features.3. Simulated mesoscale flows responding to biased latent heating and cooling distribution reinforce model deep convective upscale growth and organization biases.4. Convective upscale growth biases are most limited in simulations that best reproduce observed convective updraft kinematic and microphysical properties.