Investigation of the mechanisms that drive intraseasonal Arctic surface air temperature variability during the winter

这项提议的科学目标是促进对寒冷季节期间北极地表气温逐月时间尺度变化背后的物理机制的理解。在过去的几十年里，北极变暖的速度是地球其他地区的两倍，而且大部分变暖发生在北极阳光很少的冬季。直到最近，北极科学的主要研究重点一直是暖季过程；然而，最近的研究表明，在北极上空几乎没有阳光的冬季，与天气系统有关的温暖潮湿空气从中纬度输送到北极。这些温暖潮湿的空气入侵，甚至会使北极高地地区变暖，近年来发生得越来越频繁。这项研究将改进对北极海冰的扩展和季节性预测。它还将资助一名研究生。该团队将与宾夕法尼亚州州立大学科学与学校中心(CSATS)合作，为宾夕法尼亚州城乡学区的中学教师领导两个关于北极过程的为期一天的研讨会，为在科学、技术、工程和数学领域严重缺乏代表性的人群服务。工作坊活动将提高教师对冬季研究北极的重要性的认识。CSATS将通过前/后测试评估讲习班的效果，对第二个讲习班的教学课程和活动进行必要的调整。将调查导致北极地表气温逐月变化的机制。将通过对大气进行地面能量收支分析和湿静态能量分析来考察和量化北极温度场主导模式的演变。分析还将包括波能传播的计算。这些数据分析将得到大气数值模型计算的补充。这项研究还将包括洋流和海洋温度的检查，以及海冰数据。

The scientific objectives of this proposal are to advance understanding of the physical mechanisms behind day-to-month time scale variability in Arctic surface air temperature during the cold season. Over the past several decades, the Arctic has been warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, and most of this warming has occurred during winter when the Arctic receives very little sunlight. Until recently, the primary research focus in Arctic science has been on warm season processes; however, recent studies show that during winter when there is virtually no sunlight over the Arctic, warm moist air associated with weather systems is transported from the midlatitudes into the Arctic. These warm moist air intrusions, which can even warm high Arctic regions, have been occurring more frequently during recent years. This research will improve extended and seasonal prediction of Arctic sea ice. It will also support a graduate student. The team will collaborate with The Center for Science and The Schools (CSATS) at Penn State University to lead two single-day workshops on Arctic processes for middle school teachers from urban and rural Pennsylvania school districts serving populations highly underrepresented in science, technology, engineering, and math fields. The workshop activity will enhance the teachers' awareness of the importance of studying the Arctic for the winter season. CSATS will evaluate the effectiveness of the workshop through pre/post tests, making necessary adjustments to the pedagogy sessions and activities for the second workshop.Mechanisms that drive day-to-month variability of Arctic surface air temperature will be investigated. The evolution of dominant patterns of Arctic temperature field will be examined and quantified by performing surface energy budget analysis and moist static energy analysis for the atmosphere. The analysis will also include calculations of wave energy propagation. These data analyses will be complemented by computations with a numerical model of the atmosphere. The research will also include an examination of ocean currents and ocean temperatures, as well as sea ice data.