EAR PF: The Stability of Viscous Lavas: Understanding the Driving Processes and Greatest Hazards

布雷特B医生。卡尔已获得NSF博士后奖学金，在哥伦比亚大学拉蒙特-多尔蒂地球观测站（LDEO）开展研究和教育计划。硅质渗出物喷发是长期存在的，并对周围的居民构成持续的危害。这些喷发的主要危险是喷发的熔岩中不稳定性的发展和崩溃，形成危险的块状火山碎屑流、羽状物和灰云。这项调查将研究活跃的火山熔岩流的不稳定性，并确定其崩溃的前兆。在印度尼西亚Sinabung Volcoano的现场活动期间，PI将收集航空和热摄影，以确定流动/圆顶内部结构的变化和潜在的坍塌前兆。来自印度尼西亚火山的信息将与来自墨西哥科利马和危地马拉马奎托圆顶的数据进行比较。这项调查的结果将改善受喷发影响地区的灾害评估和风险缓解。该项目产生的新方法和见解将使火山观测站能够对不稳定性进行更详细和定量的评估，并向面临风险的社区提供更有效的预警。教育计划将侧重于指导一名本科生进行与调查有关的研究。此外，卡尔博士还将参加LDEO的公众宣传和教育活动。该项目涉及控制喷发过程中挤出的高粘度、高硅熔岩稳定性的过程。调查将解决以下问题：哪些过程促进或抑制了粘性熔岩的不稳定和崩溃，以及这些在喷发过程中如何变化？不稳定性的原因、规模和导致崩溃的频率之间存在什么关系？如何利用新兴技术来减轻熔岩不稳定的风险？卡尔博士将研究熔岩不稳定性，方法是建立一个目前活跃的火山喷发地形变化的时间序列，并确定崩塌的前兆。首席研究员将重建或收集这些水流的数字地形模型（DTM），然后使用数值边坡稳定性分析程序对其进行分析，以量化每个时间段的崩塌风险，并推断水流/圆顶的内部结构。卡尔博士将在印度尼西亚锡纳朋火山正在喷发的地方进行实地考察，并利用一种新兴技术--低成本航空和热成像--来生成一系列的气流DTM。此外，调查员还将与在墨西哥科利马和危地马拉马奎托从事圆顶研究的科学家合作，交换这些圆顶的地形数据。研究结果将与火山观测站的工作人员分享，以便纳入监测和灾害评估活动。

Dr. Brett B. Carr has been granted an NSF EAR Postdoctoral Fellowship to carry out research and education plans at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University. Silicic effusion eruptions are long-lived and present a persistent hazard to the populations living around them. The primary hazard of these eruptions is the development and collapse of instabilities in the erupted lava that form dangerous block-and-ash pyroclastic flows, plumes, and ash clouds. This investigation will examine instabilities in active silicic lava flows and identify precursors to their collapse. During field campaigns in Sinabung Volcoano, Indonesia, the PI will collect aerial and thermal photography to determine changes in the internal structure of the flow/dome and potential precursors to collapse. The information from the volcano in Indonesia will be compared with data from the domes at Colima, Mexico, and Santiaguito, Guatemala. The results from this investigation will improve hazard assessments and risk mitigation in regions affected by effusive eruptions. The new methods and insights stemming from this project will allow volcano observatories to make more detailed and quantitative assessment of instabilities and to provide more effective warning to communities at risk. The education plan will focus on mentoring of an undergraduate student in research related to the investigation. In addition, Dr. Carr will participate in public outreach and education activities at LDEO.This project addresses the processes controlling the stability of high-viscosity, high-silica lava extruded during an effusive eruption. The investigation will address the following questions: which processes promote or suppress the instability and collapse of viscous lava, and how do these vary over the course of an eruption? what relationships exist between the cause of an instability, the size, and the frequency of the resulting collapse? and how can emerging technologies be utilized to mitigate the risk from lava instability? Dr. Carr will investigate lava instabilities by creating a time-series of topographic change of currently active silicic effusive eruptions and identifying precursors to collapse. The principal investigator will reconstruct or collect digital terrain models (DTMs) of these flows and then analyze them using a numerical slope stability analysis program to quantify the risk of collapses for each time period, and to infer the internal structure of the flow/dome. Dr. Carr will conduct a field campaign at the ongoing eruption of Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia, and utilize an emerging technology - low-cost aerial and thermal photography - to generate a sequence of DTMs of the flows. In addition, the investigator will collaborate with scientists working on domes at Colima, Mexico and Santiaguito, Guatemala, to exchange topographic data of these domes. The result will be shared with staff at volcano observatories to be integrated into monitoring and hazard assessment activities.