CRISP Type 2/Collaborative Research: Defining and Optimizing Societal Objectives for the Earthquake Risk Management of Critical Infrastructure

关键的基础设施系统，如电力和供水，对经济、国家安全和公共卫生至关重要，因此必须进行设计、管理和运营，使其即使在极端事件的情况下也能可靠、有效地运行。然而，基础设施系统服务满足社会需求的方式以及这些服务的中断损害满足社会需求的能力的方式尚未得到很好的理解。也就是说，从公用事业公司获得水或电的客户比例与企业经营能力之间的关系仍有很多未知之处；履行职责的应急服务；家庭上班和上学；个人吃，喝，洗澡。在这个项目中，我们将定义地震中基础设施系统性能的社会目标，并开发一种方法来全面优化广泛的风险管理策略，以满足这些目标。该方法将为基础设施管理者和决策者在应急规划、改造规划和起草设计规范等关键职能方面提供科学依据。为了实现这些目标，这个跨学科项目明确地认识到基础设施系统不仅包括物理对象，还包括基础设施操作员和用户的使用、偏好、能力和决策。它还考虑了运营商和用户在中断服务的灾难事件中采用的适应性策略（例如，延迟需求，或用瓶装水或发电机补充供应）。我们将通过与洛杉矶水电局的从业者合作伙伴就洛杉矶电力和水的全面案例研究进行合作，并通过一系列专家访谈与其他机构合作，从而改善学术界与工业界的合作关系。该项目将通过为未被充分代表的威廉·a·安德森基金研究生奖学金获得者提供暑期实习机会，帮助扩大灾害研究和实践的参与。博士后、研究生和本科生研究助理将参与项目的各个方面。具体项目任务包括：(1)开发基于概率场景的多个基础设施系统地震风险模型，并具有评估替代风险管理策略的能力；(2)整合社交媒体、家庭调查和经济影响分析的互补优势，实证评估社会目标、用户？应对中断的适应性策略，以及它们与系统功能的传统衡量标准之间的关系；(3)建立优化模型，优化风险管理以实现社会目标；(4)通过电力和水的全面案例研究来展示模型。通过优化真正的社会目标和广泛的策略，包括组件设计、升级、修复和恢复规划，新知识将为支持更有效和高效的风险降低提供科学基础。确定社会目标将有助于加强任何必要干预措施的商业案例。

Critical infrastructure systems, such as electric power and water supply, are vital to the economy, national security, and public health, and therefore must be designed, managed, and operated so they function reliably and efficiently even in the case of an extreme event. Nevertheless, the way infrastructure system services meet societal needs and the way disruptions of those services impair the ability to meet societal needs are not well understood. That is, a lot remains unknown about the relationship between the percentage of customers receiving water or power from a utility, and the ability of businesses to operate; emergency services to perform their duties; households to get to work and school; individuals to eat, drink, and bathe. In this project, we will define the societal objectives for infrastructure system performance in earthquakes and develop a method to comprehensively optimize a broad range of risk management strategies to meet them. The method will provide a scientific basis to help infrastructure managers and policymakers in such crucial functions as emergency planning, retrofit planning, and drafting design codes. To accomplish these goals, this interdisciplinary project explicitly recognizes that infrastructure systems include not only physical objects, but also the uses, preferences, capabilities, and decisions of infrastructure operators and users. It also considers the adaptive strategies employed by operators and users in the event of a disaster that interrupts service (e.g., delaying demand, or supplementing supply with bottled water or a generator). We will improve academia-industry partnerships by engaging with our practitioner partners at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power on a full-scale case study for electricity and water in Los Angeles, and with other agencies through a sequence of expert interviews. The project will help broaden participation in disaster research and practice by providing summer internships for the underrepresented scholars who are William A. Anderson Fund Graduate Fellows. Post-docs and graduate and undergraduate research assistants will participate in all aspects of the project. Specific project tasks include: (1) Developing a probabilistic scenario-based model of the risk of multiple infrastructure systems to earthquakes with the ability to evaluate alternative risk management strategies; (2) Integrating the complementary strengths of social media, household surveys, and economic impact analyses to empirically assess societal objectives, users? adaptive strategies in responding to disruptions, and the relationships between them and traditional measures of system functioning; (3) Developing an optimization model to optimize risk management to meet societal objectives; and (4) Demonstrating models through a full-scale case study for electric power and water. The new knowledge will provide the scientific basis to support more effective and efficient risk reduction by optimizing for the true societal objectives and over a broad range of strategies, including component design, upgrading, and repair and restoration planning. Defining societal objectives will help strengthen the business case for any required interventions.