CRISP Type 2/Collaborative Research: Defining and Optimizing Societal Objectives for the Earthquake Risk Management of Critical Infrastructure

电力和供水等关键基础设施系统对经济、国家安全和公众健康至关重要，因此必须对其进行设计、管理和运行，以便即使在极端事件发生时也能可靠而高效地发挥作用。然而，基础设施系统服务如何满足社会需求，以及这些服务的中断如何损害满足社会需求的能力，还没有得到很好的理解。也就是说，从公用事业公司获得水或电的客户比例与企业运营能力、履行职责的紧急服务、家庭上班和上学以及个人吃、喝和洗澡之间的关系仍有许多未知之处。在这个项目中，我们将定义地震中基础设施系统性能的社会目标，并开发一种方法来全面优化广泛的风险管理战略，以满足这些目标。该方法将为基础设施管理人员和政策制定者提供科学依据，帮助他们履行应急规划、改造规划和起草设计规范等关键职能。为了实现这些目标，该跨学科项目明确认识到基础设施系统不仅包括物理对象，还包括基础设施运营商和用户的用途、偏好、功能和决策。它还考虑了运营商和用户在发生中断服务的灾难(例如，延迟需求，或补充瓶装水或发电机)时所采用的适应性策略。我们将通过与洛杉矶水电部的从业合作伙伴就洛杉矶水电的全面案例研究进行接触，并通过一系列专家访谈与其他机构合作，来改善学术界和产业界的伙伴关系。该项目将通过为威廉·A·安德森基金会研究生提供暑期实习机会，帮助扩大对灾害研究和实践的参与。博士后、研究生和本科生研究助理将参与该项目的所有方面。具体的项目任务包括：(1)开发基于情景的多个基础设施系统对地震的风险的概率模型，能够评估替代风险管理策略；(2)整合社交媒体、家庭调查和经济影响分析的互补优势，以经验性地评估社会目标、用户？这项工作包括：(1)制定应对中断的适应性战略，以及这些战略与传统的系统运作措施之间的关系；(3)开发一个优化模型，以优化风险管理，以满足社会目标；(4)通过电力和水的全面案例研究，展示模型。新的知识将通过优化真正的社会目标和广泛的战略，包括部件设计、升级以及维修和恢复规划，为更有效和更高效地减少风险提供科学基础。定义社会目标将有助于加强任何所需干预的业务案例。

Critical infrastructure systems, such as electric power and water supply, are vital to the economy, national security, and public health, and therefore must be designed, managed, and operated so they function reliably and efficiently even in the case of an extreme event. Nevertheless, the way infrastructure system services meet societal needs and the way disruptions of those services impair the ability to meet societal needs are not well understood. That is, a lot remains unknown about the relationship between the percentage of customers receiving water or power from a utility, and the ability of businesses to operate; emergency services to perform their duties; households to get to work and school; individuals to eat, drink, and bathe. In this project, we will define the societal objectives for infrastructure system performance in earthquakes and develop a method to comprehensively optimize a broad range of risk management strategies to meet them. The method will provide a scientific basis to help infrastructure managers and policymakers in such crucial functions as emergency planning, retrofit planning, and drafting design codes. To accomplish these goals, this interdisciplinary project explicitly recognizes that infrastructure systems include not only physical objects, but also the uses, preferences, capabilities, and decisions of infrastructure operators and users. It also considers the adaptive strategies employed by operators and users in the event of a disaster that interrupts service (e.g., delaying demand, or supplementing supply with bottled water or a generator). We will improve academia-industry partnerships by engaging with our practitioner partners at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power on a full-scale case study for electricity and water in Los Angeles, and with other agencies through a sequence of expert interviews. The project will help broaden participation in disaster research and practice by providing summer internships for the underrepresented scholars who are William A. Anderson Fund Graduate Fellows. Post-docs and graduate and undergraduate research assistants will participate in all aspects of the project. Specific project tasks include: (1) Developing a probabilistic scenario-based model of the risk of multiple infrastructure systems to earthquakes with the ability to evaluate alternative risk management strategies; (2) Integrating the complementary strengths of social media, household surveys, and economic impact analyses to empirically assess societal objectives, users? adaptive strategies in responding to disruptions, and the relationships between them and traditional measures of system functioning; (3) Developing an optimization model to optimize risk management to meet societal objectives; and (4) Demonstrating models through a full-scale case study for electric power and water. The new knowledge will provide the scientific basis to support more effective and efficient risk reduction by optimizing for the true societal objectives and over a broad range of strategies, including component design, upgrading, and repair and restoration planning. Defining societal objectives will help strengthen the business case for any required interventions.