CRISP Type 2: dMIST: Data-driven Management for Interdependent Stormwater and Transportation Systems

这个关键弹性相互依赖基础设施系统和过程（CRISP）研究项目的总体目标是创建一个新的决策支持系统，称为dMIST（相互依赖的雨水和运输系统的数据驱动管理），以改善相互依赖的运输和雨水基础设施系统的管理。dMIST是专门为解决海平面上升和更频繁的强烈风暴造成的经常性洪水的关键问题而设计的。弗吉尼亚州的诺福克市是应对海平面上升挑战的国家领导者，将与研究团队合作，并作为项目的试验台。随着海平面上升和更频繁的强烈风暴，许多城市的街道现在每年多次被洪水淹没。道路被淹对依赖公路网的其他基础设施系统，包括应急服务，产生连锁影响。解决道路被淹的问题需要能够分析雨水、交通和其他基础设施作为相互依赖系统的新工具。dMIST将是一个建议系统，用于协助市政决策者和利益相关者进行日常运营，以减轻道路洪水发生的短期影响。它还将为决策者提供测试“如果”情景的新方法，这些情景延伸到相互依赖的基础设施系统，以指导如何使用大量投资来使基础设施系统适应更具弹性的未来状态。这项研究的核心智力价值是一种称为数据预测控制（DPC）的新型建模和控制框架的进步。帮助决策者理解和管理相互依赖的关键基础设施系统（ICI）。这项研究预计将提供四个关键的新贡献，这是迫切需要使用DPC的ICI管理。该研究的目标是：（1）数据驱动的，面向控制的建模的新方法，用于相互依赖的雨水和交通网络的实时操作和控制合成，这将补充现有基础设施模型和决策过程中已经编码的知识;（2）用于基础设施系统长期规划的新混合建模方法，联合收割机数据驱动模型的优势与基于物理的（3）新的建议系统，其解释能力将在与决策者和利益攸关方协商的情况下逐步发展，这一协商过程将作为研究的一部分加以研究;以及（4）降低传感成本的新方法，该方法分析来自混合模型的建议的置信度，以及置信度如何随着假设的新传感器投资而变化。由于该研究重点关注海平面上升，因此旨在对国家经济和安全利益产生广泛影响。据估计，海平面再上升一英尺将使我国损失2000亿美元。考虑到海平面上升的普遍预测是到世纪末上升4英尺，以及海平面上升与基础设施成本之间的非线性关系，总成本将高得多。这个项目也被设计为对诺福克，试验台网站产生直接影响。诺福克，因为他们被认为是第二个最脆弱的城市在全国海平面上升的影响，提供了一个理想的试验平台，为研究目标，产生可推广的结果，可应用于其他城市，以提前解决这个问题。为此，这项工作的一个具体目标是鼓励不断发展的实时基础设施监测和控制行业的创新，以应对海平面上升带来的挑战。

The overarching objective of this Critical Resilient Interdependent Infrastructure Systems and Processes (CRISP) research project is to create a novel decision support system denoted dMIST (Data-driven Management for Interdependent Stormwater and Transportation Systems) to improve management of interdependent transportation and stormwater infrastructure systems. dMIST is designed specifically to address the critical problem of recurrent flooding caused by sea level rise and more frequent intense storms. The City of Norfolk, Virginia, a national leader in addressing the sea level rise challenge, will collaborate with the research team and serve as the project testbed. With sea level rise and more frequent intense storms, streets in many cities now flood multiple times per year. Flooding of roadways has cascading impacts to other infrastructure systems that depend on the road network including emergency services. Solving the problem of flooded roadways requires new tools capable of analyzing stormwater, transportation, and other infrastructure as interdependent systems. dMIST will be a recommendation system for assisting municipal decision makers and stakeholders in day-to-day operations to mitigate the short-term impacts of road flooding occurrences. It will also offer decision makers novel ways of testing "what if" scenarios that stretch across interdependent infrastructure systems in order to guide how large investments are used to adapt infrastructure systems to a more resilient futurestate.The core intellectual merit of this research is the advancement of a novel modeling and control framework called Data Predictive Control (DPC) for assisting decision makers in understanding and managing interdependent critical infrastructure systems (ICIs). The research is expected to provide four key novel contributions that are critically needed for management of ICIs using DPC. The research is targeted to result in: (1) new methods for data-driven, control-oriented modeling for real-time operations and control synthesis of interdependent stormwater and transportation networks that will complement the knowledge already encoded in existing infrastructure models and decision-making processes; (2) new hybrid-modeling approaches for long-term planning of infrastructure systems that combine the benefits of data-driven models with physics-based (first principles) models to allow decision-makers to explore "what if" scenarios; (3) new recommendation systems whose interpretive capabilities will be evolved in consultation with decision-makers and stakeholders, with this consultation process being studied as part of the research; and (4) new methods to reduce sensing costs that analyze the confidence of recommendations from hybrid models, and how that confidence changes with hypothetical new sensor investments. The research is intended to have broad impact related to national economic and security interests due to its focus on sea level rise. Sea level rise of an additional foot is estimated to cost our nation $200 billion. Given that a common projection for sea level rise is four feet by the end of the century and the nonlinear relationship between sea level rise and infrastructure costs, the total cost will be much higher. This project is also designed to have an immediate impact on Norfolk, the testbed site. Norfolk, because they are considered to be the second most vulnerable city in the nation to sea level rise impacts, provides an ideal testbed for the research goal of producing generalizable outcomes that can be applied to other cities in order to get ahead of this problem. To this end, a specific aim of this work is to encourage innovation in the growing industry of real-time infrastructure monitoring and control to address the challenges introduced by sea level rise.