INFEWS/T1: Scarcity Amid Abundance: Understanding Trade-offs in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in the Willamette River Basin

粮食、能源和水安全是不断增长的人口的健康、繁荣和福利所必需的。 还需要三种资源安全，以应对预期的土地使用变化、野火、人口变化、气候变化和不可预测的未来事件。 粮食、能源和水安全不能孤立地实现，供应链在每个阶段都相互联系，并受到一系列共同因素（市场、法律、政策）的影响。 为了使所有资源供应链更加安全，有必要从整体上（以及每个环节）解决问题，并评估其对整个系统稳定性的影响。 这些复杂的供应系统涉及一些相互依存的问题和脆弱性，一旦确定了这些问题的特征，就可以确定一些行动，从而减少浪费、提高效率、增强复原力和加强安全。 为此，本项目将：1）编制一个相互关联的粮食-能源-水系统的综合模型; 2）以此为基础，充分描述俄勒冈州威拉米特谷的粮食-能源-水系统，这是一个规模足以证明系统模型能力的测试案例; 3）让利益有关者参与系统模式的发展和完善，以调查与森林管理有关的政策变化对区域的影响，（a）通过对系统的相互依赖性和脆弱性的深入了解，对该方法的优缺点进行批判性评估;（b）建立一个可推广到其他地区的模块化系统模型。该项目将与决策者和利益攸关方密切合作，提供宝贵的新信息、工具和理解，以共同发展适应能力和改进战略，管理我们的粮食、能源和水供应的安全和可持续性。威拉米特河流域（WRB）是美国西部为数不多的流域之一，目前有足够的水来可靠地支持农业和市政需求。 该地区的预期压力因素包括：人口增加一倍，在未来世纪积雪减少高达95%，森林火灾增加200-900%。利益攸关方和决策者也有义务通过维持流量和水质来保护鱼类种群。这些因素结合在一起，正在给粮食、水和能源安全带来重大变化。 一个新出现的关键问题是：我们如何才能最好地利用我们有限的资源来满足相互竞争的需求，同时为WRB内外不断增长的人口提供食物、水和能源？ 在解决这些问题所需的关键信息方面存在巨大差距。 与项目利益相关者，问题是要了解当前和未来的潜在权衡有关的粮食，水和能源在威拉米特盆地，制定综合战略，将导致生产和可持续的未来。 该项目将实施一个完整的建模框架，将水，能源和食品集成在一个建模框架内，该框架将对自然环境，工程系统，人类决策者和经济的理解结合起来。 威拉米特设想将允许未来的“排练”;探索政策，资源管理决策，气候影响和人口增长的潜在相互作用，反馈和后果。 该模型将是开源的，完全可移植的，因此它可以用于世界上任何流域。 威拉米特设想可以评估气候变化，人口增长和经济发展将如何改变威拉米特河的水的可用性和使用，能源的消费和生产以及食物的生产，时间范围从十年到百年。 一个可转移的关系建模框架，通过这一努力将从一个高度分辨率的完全集成的社会生态系统模型的输出中提取。 在这个框架内确定的输入，不确定性和反馈将代表FEWS系统模型的复杂性的不可降低的限制。 这一经过改进的、方便用户的模式将成为一个可转让的教育、外联和科学工具的基础。 有了这个工具，学生，管理人员，政策制定者和利益相关者将能够探索资源权衡，以及政策决策，法规和经济的影响。 在简化模型开发的同时，该项目将在夏季为教师举办培训研讨会，在课堂上和在线教学模块将被开发，以与我们的建模工作结合使用。 研究成果还将转化为基于网络的决策支持工具和交互式基于网络的信息图表，分发给利益攸关方。 通过俄勒冈州科学和数学体验形式向教师和学生进行的外联工作将使用已经建立的通信线路为4-12年级的650名代表性不足的学生（通过63名教师）提供实践STEM体验。

Food, energy, and water security are required for the health, prosperity and welfare of growing populations. Three resource security is also needed to prepare for anticipated land use change, wildfire, population change, climatic alterations and unpredictable future events. Food, energy and water security cannot be achieved in isolation, with supply chains that are linked at every stage, and influenced by a range of common factors (markets, laws, policies). In order to to make all resource supply chains more secure, it is necessary to address the problem as a whole (as well as each link) and to assess its impact on the stability of the full system. These complex supply systems involve a number of interdependencies and vulnerabilities which, once characterized, will allow for the identification of a number of actions that will lead to reduced waste, increased efficiency, greater resilience and enhanced security. To that end, this project will 1) prepare a comprehensive model of the interrelated food-energy-water system; 2) use this as a basis for fully characterizing the food-energy-water system of the Willamette Valley, Oregon, a test case of sufficient size to demonstrate the system model's capabilities; 3) engage stakeholders in the development and refinement of the system model to investigate the regional consequences of changes in policy related to the management of forests, reservoirs and agricultural production; 4) critically evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the approach through an enhanced understanding of system interdependencies and vulnerabilities, and 5) produce a modular and generalizable system model that is transferrable to other regions. Working closely with decision makers and stakeholders, this project will contribute valuable new information, tools, and understanding to co-develop adaptive capacity and improved strategies for managing the security and sustainability of our food, energy and water supplies. The Willamette River Basin (WRB) is one of the few remaining watersheds in the western US that currently has sufficient water to reliably support agricultural and municipal demands. Anticipated stressors in the region include: doubling in population, snowpack decline of up to 95% in the coming century, and a 200-900% increase in forest fires. Stakeholders and decision makers also have an obligation to protect fish populations via the maintenance of both streamflow levels and water quality. In combination, these factors are imposing significant changes in food, water, and energy security. One emerging key question is: how can we best use our limited resources to satisfy competing demands while also securing food, water and energy for growing populations both within and outside the WRB? Substantial gaps exist in critical information required to address these questions. With project stakeholders, the problem is to understand the current and future potential tradeoffs related to food, water and energy in the Willamette Basin, developing integrated strategies that will lead to productive and sustainable futures. This project will implement a complete modeling framework that integrates water, energy, and food within a modeling framework that incorporates understanding of the natural environment, the engineered systems, the human decision makers, and the economy. Willamette Envision will allow a "rehearsal" of the future; an exploration of the potential interactions, feedbacks, and consequences of policies, resource management decisions, climate impacts and population growth. The model will be open source and fully transferrable, such that it can be used for any basin(s) in the world. Willamette Envision can evaluate how climate change, population growth, and economic development will alter the availability and the use of water, consumption and generation of energy and production of food in the Willamette River on timescales ranging from decadal to centennial. A transferrable nexus modeling framework, developed via this effort will be distilled from the outputs of a highly resolved fully integrated social-ecological systems model. The inputs, uncertainties and feedbacks identified within this framework will represent the irreducible limit of complexity for a FEWS system model. The refined and user-friendly model will form the basis of a transferrable educational, outreach and scientific tool. With this tool, students, managers, policy makers and stakeholders will be able to explore resource tradeoffs, and the impact of policy decisions, regulations, and economy. In conjunction with the simplified model development, the project will host training workshops for teachers in the summer where in class and online instructional modules will be developed to be used in conjunction with our modeling efforts. The outcomes of the research will also be transformed into web-based decision support tools and interactive web-based infographics, to be distributed to stakeholders. The outreach effort to teachers and students through Oregon Science and Math Experiences format will provide hands-on STEM experiences to 650 underrepresented students (through 63 teachers) in grades 4-12 using already established lines of communication.