Collaborative Research: Assessing Drivers of Climate Model Biases on the Pacific Continental Shelf of Antarctica

南极洲沿海太平洋部分的海洋学过程表现出全球相互作用，包括南极冰盖对海平面上升的贡献、地球辐射平衡的变化、通过海冰变化进行的空气/海洋气体交换、深水形成以及南大洋生物生产力。大气-海洋环流模式（GCM）是了解全球气候、南极沿海海洋、冰冻圈（海冰、冰架和基于海洋的冰盖）和南极生态系统之间复杂相互作用的有用工具。当前一代的GCM表现出很大的偏见，在他们的预测，目前的水文和海冰状态。以前对沿海冰冻圈的预测采用了简单的偏差校正。然而，这种方法并不能纠正导致这些偏差的潜在物理和数值误差。 该项目通过确定偏差的本地和/或远程来源及其在不同区域和不同气候模式下的变化，寻求偏差与解释GCM预测的相关性。该奖项将充分利用通过耦合模式相互比较项目第6阶段（CMIP 6）获得的大量新的模拟结果，并将重点关注南极沿海快速变化的太平洋部分。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Oceanographic processes in the Pacific sector of coastal Antarctica exhibit global interactions, including contribution of Antarctic ice-sheets to sea level rise, changes in the Earth's radiative balance, air/sea gas exchange through sea-ice variability, deep water formation, and Southern Ocean biological productivity. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for understanding the complex interactions between global climate, the Antarctic coastal ocean, the cryosphere (sea ice, ice shelves, and grounded, marine-based ice sheet), and Antarctic ecosystems. Current-generation GCMs exhibit substantial biases in their projections of present-day hydrography and sea ice state. Previous projections of the coastal cryosphere have applied simple bias corrections. However, this approach does not remedy the underlying physical and numerical errors responsible for these biases. This project seeks the relevance of biases to the interpretation of GCM projections by identifying their local and/or remote origins and their variation across regions and with different climate models. It will leverage the wealth of new simulations becoming available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6), and will focus on the rapidly-changing Pacific sector of the coastal Antarctic.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.