CAREER: The Response of Coastal Squall Line Dynamics to Climate Change

这项研究试图量化气候变化对美国东部沿海地区强雷暴的影响，重点是斜线。这项研究有可能促进我们对对社会产生影响的自然灾害的认识和理解。虽然东北部的雷暴可能没有美国中部大平原上的暴风雨那么强烈，也没有那么具破坏性，但美国东北部的人口密度为这些严重风暴产生更大的社会影响创造了条件。除了对本科生和研究生进行培训外，计划中的研究还包括关于统计概率在天气预报和未来气候模拟中的作用的公众宣传和教育的组成部分；以及严重雷暴等自然灾害造成的潜在社会影响。全球环流模型(GCM)预测，美国夏季强风暴活动将增加，在东北沿海和大西洋中部地区最大。目前，东北沿海地区的所有灾害性天气中，约有三分之一来自沿海地区的飓风线。它们的结构、生命周期和局部危害将对气候、大气和海洋变化做出反应，对大气不稳定、沿海海面温度和沿海海洋大气边界层(MABL)等因素敏感。这项研究将结合现有的气候情景数据，针对中尺度模拟进行缩减，并结合集成建模技术，以提高我们对美国东北部强雷暴在变暖气候中的影响的理解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This study seeks to quantify the impact of a changing climate on severe thunderstorms over the eastern U.S. coastal region with emphasis on squall lines. This study has the potential to advance our knowledge and understanding of impactful natural hazards to society. While thunderstorms in the northeast may not be as strong, or as damaging, as storms over the central Great Plains of the U.S., the population density of the northeastern U.S. creates a condition for greater societal impact from these severe storms. In addition to the training of undergraduate and graduate students, the planned research includes a component of public outreach and education on role of statistical probability in weather forecasts and future climate simulations; as well as the potential societal impacts resulting from natural hazards such as severe thunderstorms. Global circulation models (GCMs) project an increase in U.S. summertime severe storm activity, maximized over the coastal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Presently, coastal squall lines account for roughly a third of all severe weather over the coastal Northeast. Their structure, lifecycle, and local hazards will respond to climatic atmospheric and oceanic changes, with sensitivity to factors including atmospheric instability, coastal sea surface temperature, and the coastal marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). This research will combine existing climate scenario data, downscaled for mesoscale simulations, and ensemble modeling techniques to improve our understanding of the impact of severe thunderstorms in the northeastern U.S. in a warming climate.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.