Evaluating the Impact of Future Volcanic Eruptions on Stratospheric Ozone: Influence of Multicomponent Injection, Climate Change, Latitude, and Seasonality

这个项目的重点是调查未来火山爆发对平流层臭氧的潜在影响。平流层臭氧保护地球免受有害的紫外线辐射，因此了解火山爆发如何影响平流层化学，从而导致保护臭氧层的变化是很重要的。本提案的主要目标有三个：(1)表征柱臭氧对当代和未来火山爆发的敏感性，作为火山纬度和季节的函数；(2)测定臭氧柱对火山喷发产生的无机氯、溴、碘和二氧化硫直接共注入平流层的敏感性；(3)量化各种温室气体排放情景下未来的溴和碘α因子（溴和碘相对于氯的臭氧破坏活性）。这项工作将在大多数情景中采用带有气溶胶微物理（sol - aer）的太阳气候臭氧联系模型。化学输运模式AER-2D也将用于量化平流层臭氧对项目中动力学作用较小的元素的敏感性。博士后研究员将进行许多实验，这项工作将为本科生提供发展研究技能的机会。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project is focused on investigating the potential impacts of future volcanic eruptions on stratospheric ozone. Stratospheric ozone shields the Earth from harmful ultra-violet radiation and hence it is important to understand how volcanic eruptions might impact stratospheric chemistry leading to changes in the protective ozone layer.The primary objectives of this proposal are threefold: (1) characterize column ozone sensitivity to contemporary and future explosive volcanic eruptions as a function of volcanic latitude and season; (2) determine ozone column sensitivity to the direct stratospheric co-injection of inorganic chlorine, bromine, and iodine along with sulfur dioxide from volcanic eruption; and (3) quantify future bromine and iodine alpha factors (the relative ozone-destroying activity of bromine and iodine relative to chlorine) in a variety of greenhouse gas emission scenarios.The effort will employ the SOlar Climate Ozone Links model with aerosol microphysics (SOCOL-AER) for the majority of the scenarios. The chemical transport model AER-2D will also be used to quantify the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone for elements of the project where dynamics play a less significant role. A postdoctoral fellow will perform many of the experiments and the work will provide opportunities for the development of research skills by undergraduate students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.