RAPID: Interacting effects of disturbances on population demography

飓风扰动可能通过强降雨、大风和风暴潮对仅限于沿海小岛的野生动物产生巨大的负面影响。本研究的目的是探讨一个周期性的，小规模的干扰，如火灾，与一个极端的干扰（飓风）的种群增长和生存的一种濒危的蝴蝶物种，巴特拉姆的灌木-hairstreak（Strymon bartrami）和它的罕见的主机，pineland croton（Croton linearis）的相互作用。这些物种零星分布在整个南佛罗里达的罗克兰栖息地，最近受到飓风厄玛的眼墙袭击。这项研究的结果将为佛罗里达南部14种敏感植物和动物的管理提供信息，其中包括受飓风厄玛影响的另外3种濒危蝴蝶物种。通过了解一种濒危昆虫-植物宿主对相互作用干扰的反应机制，该项目将深入了解这些干扰如何影响其他敏感物种。该项目还将为一名博士后研究员和一名本科生提供研究培训，该项目将检验飓风与更有规律的局部扰动协同作用加速生境变化的假设。根据正在进行的实验的现有数据和与以前的飓风干扰有关的研究生物分布的观测数据，研究人员将测试这两种类型的干扰将协同作用以增加宿主植物招募和死亡率的假设。先前的研究已经测量了基于管理的干扰（林下移除模拟野火）的生命率响应，这个快速项目将测量飓风干扰的生命率响应以及管理和飓风干扰之间的相互作用。经验数据将用于参数化人口矩阵模型，以预测人口对未来相互作用的干扰的反应，并预测各种干扰频率下的人口，包括可以控制的人为干扰频率和无法控制的强烈飓风频率。

Hurricane disturbances may have large negative impacts on wildlife restricted to small coastal islands, through intense rain, wind, and storm surge. Paradoxically, hurricane disturbance may also regenerate certain habitats that particular species of wildlife depend on. The goal of this research is to investigate the interaction of a periodic, small scale disturbances such as fire, with an extreme disturbance (hurricane) on population growth and survival of an endangered butterfly species, Bartram's scrub-hairstreak (Strymon acis bartrami) and its rare host, pineland croton (Croton linearis). These species are patchily distributed throughout South Florida in rockland habitat, which was recently struck by the eyewall of Hurricane Irma. Results from this research will inform management of fourteen sensitive plants and animals in South Florida, including three additional endangered butterfly species affected by Hurricane Irma. By understanding the mechanisms of how one endangered insect-plant host pair responds to interacting disturbances, this project will provide insight into how these disturbances might influence other sensitive species. This project will also provide research training for a postdoctoral fellow and for undergraduate students.This project will test the hypothesis that hurricanes interact synergistically with more regular, localized disturbances to accelerate habitat change. Based on existing data from an ongoing experiment and observational data on the distribution of the study organisms in relation to previous hurricane disturbances, researchers will test the hypothesis that the two types of disturbances will interact synergistically to increase host plant recruitment and mortality. Prior research has already measured vital rate responses to management-based disturbance (understory removal to simulate wildfire), and this RAPID project will measure vital rate responses to hurricane disturbance and the interaction between management and hurricane disturbances. Empirical data will be used to parameterize demographic matrix models to predict population responses to future interacting disturbances, and to project populations across a range of disturbance frequencies, including frequencies of human-managed disturbances that can be controlled and frequencies of intense hurricanes that cannot be controlled.