CNH-L: Volcanism, Hydrology and Social Conflict: Lessons from Hellenistic and Roman-Era Egypt and Mesopotamia

这个项目研究了古代火山爆发和每年尼罗河夏季洪水之间的联系。大型火山爆发可以降低全球平均气温，抑制全球平均降水。众所周知，这在历史上对尼罗河流域的年降雨量产生了巨大影响。人类对这种每年一次的洪水的反应，以及它多年来的变化，是埃及历史的主要驱动力，直到1970年阿斯旺高坝建成。该项目是历史学家、科学家、水文学家和统计学家的合作，旨在了解希腊化时代（公元前305年-公元前30年）埃及水文循环与人类社会之间的耦合。希腊化时代是一个有充分文献记载的经济、技术和社会变革时期，主要地区大国之间经常发生激烈的竞争。研究结果还将使我们了解应对现代世界气候变化的最佳做法。该项目将通过在耶鲁皮博迪自然历史博物馆开展的巡回展览项目，向广大公众介绍人类和自然系统，以及它们之间在不同尺度上的复杂相互作用。该项目将利用古埃及和近东地区罕见的自然和人类档案的融合。通过将丰富的历史记录（纸莎草文献和铭文）与环境数据以及反复发生的气候突变事件的区域气候和水文模拟进行比较，该研究将确定社会动态是否以及如何受到气候驱动，以及人类水资源管理是否以及如何影响区域气候和水文。火山爆发为人类和自然系统对突然冲击的敏感性提供了检验，因为它们的反复发生使人们能够在随机变异性存在的情况下确定系统关系。该项目将做出三个重要贡献：(1)整合来自大量不同档案的历史数据，分析希腊化时代气候变化、社会动荡和制度变迁之间的联系；(2)提高对火山喷发水文响应的认识；(3)记录人类活动对地中海水文的影响程度。模拟将用于评价大规模和持续的火山活动和密集的区域水管理对气候的影响。这一历史分析将描述在希腊化时期，环境压力如何影响国家层面的行为、社区反应（如土地和水管理的变化）和州际冲突的机制，以及人类活动如何相互影响土壤、土地覆盖、水文和区域气候。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project examines the link between explosive volcanic eruptions and the annual Nile river summer flooding in antiquity. Large volcanic eruptions can reduce average global temperatures and suppress average global precipitation. This is known to have had dramatic effects on annual rainfall on the Nile watershed in historic times. The human response to this annual flooding, and to its variability over the years, was the major driver of Egyptian history up to the completion of the high dam at Aswan in 1970. This project, a collaboration among historians, scientists, hydrologists, and statisticians, seeks to understand the coupling between the hydrological cycle and human society in Egypt during the Hellenistic era (305 BCE - 30 BCE), a well-documented period of economic, technological and social change with often violent rivalries between major regional powers. The results will also inform our understanding of best-practice responses to the changing climate in the modern world. The project will inform the broad public about human and natural systems and the complex interactions between them at diverse scales, through a traveling exhibition program developed at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History. This project will capitalize upon a rare confluence of natural and human archives for Ancient Egypt and the Near East. By comparing rich historical records (papyrus documents and inscriptions) with environmental data and regional climate and hydrologic simulations for repeated abrupt climate events, the research will determine whether and how social dynamics are climate-driven, and whether and how human water management affects regional climate and hydrology. Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. The project will make three important contributions: (1) integrate historical data from a wealth of different archives to analyze the connections between climate variability, social unrest, and institutional change during the Hellenistic era; (2) improve knowledge of hydrological responses to volcanic eruptions; (3) document the extent of human impacts on Mediterranean hydrology. Simulations will be used to evaluate the climatic impact of large and sustained volcanism and intensive regional water management. This historical analysis will delineate the mechanisms through which environmental stress influenced state-level behaviors, community responses (such as changes in land and water management), and interstate conflict during the Hellenistic period, and how in return human activities interactively affected soils, land cover, hydrology, and regional climate.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.