Polar Seabirds with Long-term Pair Bonds: Effects of Mating on Individual Fitness and Population Dynamics

许多动物，从甲壳类动物到人类，都有长期的关系。离婚或守寡对一夫一妻制物种的人口影响知之甚少。本研究旨在促进对伴侣丧失的驱动因素的理解，并量化其对极地物种形成终身关系的个体适应性和种群动态的影响。该项目将重点关注两种形成长期伴侣关系的海鸟：漂泊信天翁和雪海燕。这些标志性的极地物种存在独特的长期个体标记重新捕获数据集，可以对配对中断的速率、原因和后果以及它们在南极物种之间的差异进行全面研究。关于不断变化的环境制度的影响，以及作为这项研究的副产品的渔业的直接和间接影响，可能会获得新的见解。该项目的目的是为了更好地了解配对破坏的不同驱动因素的含义，并量化其对南大洋两种前轮虫繁殖的个体适应性成分、种群增长率和结构的影响。该项目将重点关注流浪信天翁和雪海燕，它们都形成了长期的伴侣关系。独特的长期个体标记再捕获数据集允许研究配对破坏的速率、原因和后果，以及它们在不同生活史的物种之间的差异，以及在机制和配对破坏速率方面的预期差异。这项研究将详细分析社会一夫一妻制和长期配对对个体健康成分（生命率：生存、招募和繁殖力；生活史结果：预期寿命、第一次繁殖的年龄和一生的繁殖成功；占用时间：配对结合或守寡的持续时间）和人口增长和结构（例如，可供交配的个体的性别比例）的影响。具体而言，该项目将评估：1。通过开发一个统计多事件标记-再捕获模型，研究配对中断率的变化，以及它们是否与全球变化（信天翁丧偶的副渔获物和海燕离婚的气候）有关。2. 配对中断对生命率的影响，特别是是否i)更熟悉和更好的配对之间的协调提高了繁殖性能和存活率，ii)交配成本降低了繁殖的可能性，iii)在繁殖失败后更有可能发生离婚。基于马尔可夫链随机生命周期模型的配对中断对生活史结果和占用时间的影响。通过建立一种新的非线性二元矩阵种群模型对种群动态的影响。该研究将包括敏感性和生命表响应实验分析，以检查渔业、气候、生命率和配对中断率对生活史结果、占用时间、人口增长和结构的各自影响，以及它们在年份和物种之间的变化。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Many animals, from crustaceans to humans, engage in long-term relationships. The demographic consequences of divorce or widowhood for monogamous species are poorly understood. This research seeks to advance understanding of the drivers of partner loss and quantify its resulting effects on individual fitness and population dynamics in polar species that form life-long relationships. The project will focus on pair disruption in two seabirds that form long-last pair bonds: the wandering albatross and the snow petrel. Unique long-term individual mark-recapture data sets exist for these iconic polar species, allowing for a comprehensive study of the rates, causes and consequences of pair disruption and how they may differ among Antarctic species. Insights might be gained regarding the effects of changing environmental regimes as well as by direct and indirect effects of fisheries as a by-product of this research. The aim of the project is to better understand the implications of different drivers of pair disruption and quantify its resulting effects on individual fitness components and population growth rate and structure for two procellariiformes breeding in the Southern Ocean. The project will focus on the wandering albatross and the snow petrel, which both form long-lasting pair bonds. The unique long-term individual mark-recapture data sets allow for a study of the rates, causes and consequences of pair disruption and how they differ among species with different life histories as well as expected differences in mechanisms and rates of pair disruptions. The study will result in a detailed analysis of the impact of social monogamy and long-term pair bonds on individual fitness components (vital rates: survival, recruitment and fecundity; life-history outcomes: life expectancy, age at 1st breeding and lifetime reproductive success; and occupancy times: duration of pair bond or widowhood) and population growth and structure (e.g, sex ratio of individuals available for mating). Specifically, the project will assess:1. Variations in pair disruption rates, and if they are related to global change (by-catch in the case of albatross widowing, and climate in the case of petrel divorce) by developing a statistical multievent mark-recapture model. 2. Impacts of pair disruption on vital rates, specifically whether i) greater familiarity and better coordination within pairs improves breeding performance and survival, ii) mating costs reduce the probability of breeding and iii) divorce is more likely to occur after a breeding failure.3. Impacts of pair disruption on life-history outcomes and occupancy times using Markov chain stochastic life cycle models.4. Impacts of pair disruption on population dynamics by developing a novel non-linear two-sex matrix population model.The research will include sensitivity and Life Table Response Experiment analyses to examine the respective effects of fisheries, climate, vital rates, and pair-disruption rates on life-history outcomes, occupancy times, and population growth and structure, and their variations among year and speciesThis award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.