Modelling of load-induced height changes in the southern Baltic for the last 8.000 years

该项目的目的是根据表面负荷效应建立地壳垂直运动和相对海平面变化的模型。建模将侧重于波罗的海南部沿海地区和自Littorina海侵以来选定的海平面演变阶段的现实情况。在波罗的海的形成和填充过程中，不断变化的水体的空间高度分化的负载信号的影响将进行调查。为此目的，海平面方程将应用于调查区域，将海平面、重力和等深线对相对海平面变化的密切相关的影响联系起来。均衡地壳垂直形变将使用粘弹性地球模型来确定，该模型由包括不断变化的陆地-海洋分布的时空负荷模型来控制。在拟议的项目中，这样的负荷模型将被建立为具有前所未有的空间和时间分辨率的现有大规模模型的缩小。这是因为SINCOS-II项目1提供了关于海平面和海岸线位置变化的独特知识，而这些知识是最近从SINCOS单位内的多学科研究中获得的。基于增强的负荷模型，地壳，重力场和相对海平面的相关响应进行了量化。分离海平面方程各组成部分对观测到的海平面变化的贡献，对于项目1打算进行的任何进一步建模都是必不可少的。总的来说，海平面方程的解为精确解释和解释调查区域可用的相对海平面曲线提供了基础。一旦在过去的海平面变化的负荷效应已经重建，未来海平面的发展预测将接近应用情景的气候驱动的海平面变化。

The aim of this project is the modelling of vertical crustal movements and of relative sea-level changes based on surface loading effects. The modelling will focus on the coastal region of the southern Baltic Sea and on realistic scenarios of selected sealevel evolution stages since the Littorina transgression. The impact of the spatially highly differentiated loading signal of the changing water masses in the course of the formation and filling of the Baltic Sea will be investigated. For this purpose, the Sea-Level Equation will be applied to the region under investigation, relating the closely linked contributions of eustasy, gravity and isostasy on relative sea-level changes. The isostatic vertical crustal deformation will be determined using a visco-elastic earth model, which is governed by a space-time load model including the changing land-sea distribution. In the proposed project, such a load model will be established as a downscaling of existing large scale models with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. This is possible due to the unique knowledge about changes in the sea level and shoreline position provided from SINCOS-II project 1, and which has recently been obtained from the multidisciplinary research within the SINCOS unit. Based on the enhanced load model, the associated response of the earth crust, gravity field, and relative sea level are quantified. The separation of the contributions of the Sea-Level Equation components to the observed sea-level changes is essential for any further modelling intended in project 1. In general, the solution of the Sea-Level Equation provides the basis for a refined interpretation and explanation of the relative sea-level curves available for the investigation area. Once the loading effects of sea-level changes in the past have been reconstructed, a prediction of future sea-level developments will be approached applying scenarios of the climatically driven eustatic changes.