Doctoral Dissertation Research: Imagining the Unimaginable: War, Weapons and Procurement Politics

这个项目研究了国家如何选择他们设计和使用的军事武器。先前的研究表明，有关武器技术的决定主要是由安全考虑或财政需求驱动的，但这些因素无法解释目前各国武器发展的模式。相反，这个项目将测试这样一种理论，即每个国家参与战争和武器开发的人（即军事人员、科学家、私营公司等）对未来战争的概念化方式塑造了他们寻求设计和采购的武器种类。这一理论将在美国、英国、法国和印度的航空母舰、隐身技术和自主武器的开发和采购中得到检验。验证该理论的数据将来自对国家档案中的军事文件的分析，对每个国家关键人物的深度访谈，以及旨在揭示军事预算和武器采购决策如何做出的调查实验。这是一个多方法调查如何以及为什么民族国家决定创造和采购不同类型的武器技术。它侧重于军事人员、政治家、科学家、私营公司和民间社会组织之间的互动。主要的争论是，这些参与者对未来战争的概念影响了他们对武器采购的选择。因此，每一组行动者的身份、对未来冲突状态的信念、对战争法律和道德的接受程度和解释，都决定了他们将针对不同类型的安全威胁提出的技术解决方案。预计这些技术解决办法随后转化为武器系统的程度将取决于每组行动者参与决策过程的程度以及他们的想法与决策者的想法产生共鸣的程度。这些因素相互作用的预测结果是，即使面临类似的威胁，各国最终也会在武器采购方面做出不同的选择。这一武器技术设计和采购理论将通过比较来自美国、英国、法国和印度的档案、访谈和实验数据进行检验。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project examines how nations make choices about the military weapons that they design and use. Previous research suggests that decisions about weapons technologies are driven mainly by security concerns or financial needs, but such factors cannot explain current patterns of weapons development across nations. This project will instead test the theory that the ways in which those involved in war and weapons development in each nation (i.e. military personnel, scientists, private firms, etc.) conceptualize future warfare shapes the kinds of weapons that they seek to design and procure. This theory will be tested in relation to the development and procurement of aircraft carriers, stealth technology, and autonomous weapons in the United States, United Kingdom, France, and India. Data for testing the theory will come from analyses of military documents in national archives, in-depth interviews with key figures in each nation, and a survey experiment designed to uncover how decisions are made regarding military budgets and weapons procurement.This is a multi-method investigation of how and why nation states decide to create and procure different types of weapons technologies. It focuses on interactions among military personnel, politicians, scientists, private firms, and civil society organizations. The main contention is that these actors' conceptions of future warfare shape their choices about weapons procurement. Thus, each set of actors' identity, belief about the state of future conflict, and receptiveness to and interpretation of the laws and ethics of warfare shape the technical solutions that they will propose to different types of security threats. The extent to which these technological solutions are then transformed into weapons systems is predicted to be determined by the extent to which each set of actors has access to the decision-making process and the extent to which their ideas resonate with those of decision makers. The predicted result of interplay among these factors is that even when faced with similar threats, states end up making different choices regarding weapons procurement. This theory of weapons technology design and procurement will be tested by comparing archival, interview, and experimental data from the United States, United Kingdom, France, and India.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.