Doctoral Dissertation Research: Factors Influencing Risk Perception and Movement Decisions in Coastal Louisiana

短期的环境骚乱和长期的环境变化使全球数百万人流离失所。美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区特别容易受到飓风、海平面上升、地面沉降和洪水的影响。路易斯安那州的一些教区失去了超过90%的土地，这主要是由于环境变化。哪些社会经济和文化因素会影响人们对环境风险和移民的看法？这个项目调查了传统上与环境无关的因素，包括与地方的联系，强大的社会关系，以及对环境风险的反感，这些因素可能会让人们留在原地，尽管存在环境风险。移民理论表明，移民行为在很大程度上与经济因素有关，比如收入机会或生活抱负。这项研究对研究生进行严谨、科学的数据收集和分析方法的培训，将调查环境感知是否会影响移动决策，以及影响的程度。更好地理解迁移决策可以为地方和州决策者提供信息，对其组成部分和可能的行为结果进行更准确的综合描述，从而能够更好地预测迁移模式和战略规划。当紧急情况和第一反应社区面临新的环境危险时，环境感知也对他们有价值。更好地沟通环境风险或危险的能力最终可以帮助拯救生命。在亚利桑那州立大学肖娜·伯恩西尔弗博士的监督下，夏洛特·蒂尔将探索风险认知和移民决定之间的关系。这项研究将在路易斯安那州的特雷伯恩教区进行，那里是研究运动行为有急性和慢性应激源的风险的理想环境。飓风对这一地区构成了严重的季节性威胁，但海平面上升和地面下沉代表着累积的风险，也是沿海人民面临的新的日常现实。在2016年该地区的试点研究工作中，研究人员发现，相对于年轻居民，尽管存在已知风险，但年长居民离开的意图较少，家庭、家庭或社区等因素是环境的重要特征。基于调查和访谈方法，本研究将首先确定环境是如何被感知的，然后调查这些感知对移动决策的影响。调查回答将形成代表当地看法的基线数据，然后将邀请一部分受访者进行访谈，让调查人员探索运动逻辑(S)和已确定的影响因素对他们决策的重要性。将使用文本分析工具来分析访谈数据。通过这项工作的发现可能获得的洞察力的例子包括：如何做出搬家决定，什么因素导致地点依恋超过风险，以及环境因素如何与搬家决定相互作用。通过积极吸收不动的个体，该项目针对的是一个研究不足但关键的群体，用于分析人类的运动模式。通过直接从教区吸引参与者，这项研究可能会刺激公众更多地参与科学，为提高公众的科学素养做出贡献。这项研究有助于发展关于环境在迁移决策中的作用以及影响这些决策的因素的移徙文献。该项目还将促进社区、应急管理人员和市政代表之间更好的理解和参与。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Short-term environmental disturbances and long-term environmental change have displaced millions worldwide. The US Gulf Coast region is especially vulnerable to the impacts of hurricanes, sea level rise, land subsidence, and flooding. Some parishes in Louisiana have lost over 90% of their land, largely due to environmental changes. What socioeconomic and cultural factors influence perceptions of environment risk and migration? This project investigates factors not traditionally associated with the environment, including ties to place, strong social relationships, and counter perceptions of environmental risk, that might keep people in place, despite environmental risk. Migration theory suggests that behavior is largely linked to economic factors, such as income opportunities or life ambitions. This research, which trains a graduate student in methods of rigorous, scientific data collection and analysis, will investigate whether, and to what extent, environmental perceptions impact movement decisions. Improved understanding of movement decisions can inform local and state decision makers, yielding more precise composite descriptions of their constituents and likely behavioral outcomes, enabling better prediction of migration patterns and strategic planning. Environmental perceptions are also of value to the emergency and first-response communities when they confront new environmental dangers. The ability to better communicate environmental risk or danger can ultimately help to save lives.Charlotte Till, under the supervision of Dr. Shauna BurnSilver of Arizona State University, will explore the relationship between risk perceptions and migration decisions. This research will be conducted in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, an ideal setting for studying risk where there are both acute and chronic stressors on movement behavior. Hurricanes pose a severe seasonal threat to this area, but sea level rise and land subsidence represent cumulative risks and a new everyday reality for coastal people. During pilot study work in the area in 2016 the researchers found that relative to younger residents, older residents had less intention to leave despite known risks, and factors such as home, family, or community were important features of the environment. Based on survey and interview methodologies this research will first identify how the environment is perceived, and then investigate the influence of these perceptions on movement decisions. Survey responses will form the baseline data representing local perceptions, and then a subset of respondents will be invited to interviews allowing the investigator to explore movement logic(s) and the significance of identified influence factors for their decision making. Text analysis tools will be used to analyze interview data. Examples of the insights possible through the findings of this work include: how movement decisions are made, what factors result in place attachment outweighing risk, and how environmental factors interact with movement decisions. By actively incorporating individuals who do not move, this project is targeting an understudied but critical group for analyzing human movement patterns. By drawing participants directly from the parish this research may spur greater public engagement with science, contributing toward greater public scientific literacy. This research contributes to development of the migration literature on the role of the environment in movement decisions and factors impacting those decisions. This project will also facilitate improved understanding and engagement among communities, emergency managers, and municipal respresentatives.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.