Do spatial traits (geography) or species traits better explain vulnerability and resilience of plants to external threats?

该项目确定了植物生物多样性中最脆弱的元素，相反，最能抵御栖息地丧失的相互影响威胁，通过土地利用变化和城市化，以及环境变异性和野火制度的相关变化。根据物种的先天特征（物种特征）和自然发生的地点（地理或空间特征）来确定赋予物种脆弱性或复原力的因素的普遍性，这是本项目的智力贡献，也是对地理和空间科学的贡献。本研究的结果允许对物种和生态系统进行优先排序，并确定植物多样性管理和保护的地点。该项目将在加州大学河滨分校（UCR）进行，这是一所为西班牙裔服务的机构，位于美国最具社会经济和文化多样性的地区之一。pi将利用UCR现有的STEM教育计划，通过CalTeach项目吸引当地K-12教室的本科生，在那里他们将介绍空间科学和模型，作为理解地理概念、生态原则和紧迫保护问题的框架。植物物种对威胁的脆弱性取决于它们与这些威胁相关的分布（生物地理），以及它们的物种特征。植物可能是长寿命的，也可能是短寿命的（红杉树与罂粟），它们可以避免栖息地的破碎和丧失，因为它们的生态位将它们置于不适合发展的地方，或者它们可能具有允许它们在火灾后恢复种群数量的特性（火刺激种子发芽，或从地下部分发芽）。在不断变化的环境中，植物只能通过种子传播的方式在代际间远离威胁。该项目确定了空间特征（生物地理）和物种特征的一般方面，这些特征或多或少地赋予了植物在下个世纪随着人口增长和土地利用变化而在全球变化下的脆弱性。pi使用模拟模型来预测各种植物物种的种群增长或下降，这些物种在干扰响应和其他物种特征（生命形式：树木、灌木、草本植物、火灾响应和形态特征）以及它们的生物地理（沿海、山区和沙漠分布）方面存在差异，以确定它们对威胁的脆弱性的一般性。他们使用现代回归和机器学习方法开发和使用空间明确的火灾风险和物种生物地理统计模型，并使用这些模型来预测不同土地利用和环境情景下的空间明确变化。pi使用来自COMPADRE植物矩阵数据库的数据构建植物种群模型，并从TRY植物性状数据库中提取物种性状。该项目侧重于加利福尼亚植物区系省的生物多样性，但所确定的趋势将广泛适用于整个美国西部，在那里，水资源有限的生态系统受到日益增加的环境变化和野火的强烈影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project identifies the elements of plant biodiversity that are most vulnerable and, conversely, most resilient to the interacting threats of habitat loss, via land-use change and urbanization, as well as environmental variability and related changes in wildfire regimes. Identifying generalities in the factors that confer vulnerability or resilience to species based on their innate characteristics (their species traits) and where they naturally occur (their geography or spatial traits) in relation to threats, is the intellectual contribution of this project and to geography and the spatial sciences. Results from this study permit a prioritization of species and ecosystems and identify locations for management and conservation of plant diversity. This project will be conducted at the University of California Riverside (UCR), a Hispanic-serving institution located in one of the most socio-economically and culturally diverse regions in the United States. The PIs will leverage existing STEM education initiatives at UCR to engage undergraduates in local K-12 classrooms through the CalTeach program, where they will introduce spatial science and models as a framework for understanding geographic concepts, ecological principles and pressing conservation issues.The vulnerability of a plant species to threat depends on their distribution (biogeography) in relation to these threats, as well as their species traits. Plants may be long or short lived (redwood trees versus poppies), escape habitat fragmentation and loss because their ecological niche places them in locations undesirable for development, or they may have traits that allow them to recover their populations following fire (fire-stimulated seed germination, or resprouting from underground parts). In a changing environment, plants can only move (migrate) away from threats intergenerationally, mainly via seed dispersal. This project identifies the general aspects of spatial traits (biogeography) versus species traits that confer more or less vulnerability to plants under global change in the coming century as human populations grow and land-use changes. The PIs use simulation modeling to project the population growth or decline for a wide range of plant species that differ in their disturbance-response and other species traits (life form: trees, shrubs, herbs; fire-response; and morphological traits) and their biogeography (coastal, mountain and desert distributions) to identify generalities regarding their vulnerability to threats. They develop and use statistical models of spatially explicit fire risk and species biogeography using modern regression and machine learning methods and use those models to project spatially explicit changes under different land-use and environmental scenarios. The PIs construct plant population models using data from the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database and will extract species traits from the TRY Plant Trait Database. This project focuses on the biodiversity of the California Floristic Province, but trends identified will be broadly relevant throughout the entire western U.S. where water-limited ecosystems are strongly impacted by increasing environmental variability and increasing wildfire.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.