Quantifying the Distributional Consequences of Trade and Policy Responses

摘要贸易的分配后果是多方面的，并处于主要政策辩论的前沿。没有足够的机制来防范贸易损失，同时保护赢家的收益。同样，劳动力转移到从贸易中获益的地点、部门和公司的能力也有限。所有这些因素都导致了贸易冲击造成的不平等。该项目在三个方面促进了这场辩论。首先，该项目开发了一个量化框架，以检查贸易的分配效应。其次，该项目使用这个框架来评估家庭通过移民、劳动力供应和自我保险对贸易敞口的变化进行调整的程度，从而量化贸易的福利影响。第三，该项目对家庭如何调整消费以应对贸易冲击进行了实证研究。这个项目开发了一个动态的量化框架，包括不完全市场、李嘉图贸易和摩擦的劳动力市场。该框架经过校准，以匹配美国的总体证据和差异证据，然后研究经济在应对贸易自由化时的转型动态。校准后的模型被用作实验室，回答有关贸易损益的总体效应和异质性的问题。量化框架进一步突出了一个开放的、未被研究的问题，即劳动力市场引发的贸易消费效应。该项目通过关注2017至2019年间的最新贸易政策，为这些影响提供了新的证据。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractDistributional consequences of trade are manifold and are at the forefront of major policy debates. There are insufficient mechanisms to insure against trade losses while preserving the gains for the winners. Similarly, labor has limited ability to move to the locations, sectors, and firms that gain from trade. All these factors contribute to inequality as a result of trade shocks. This project contributes to this debate in three ways. First, the project develops a quantitative framework to examine the distributional effects of trade. Second, the project uses this framework to evaluate the extent to which households can adjust through migration, labor supply, and self-insurance to changes in trade exposure, and, thus quantify the welfare effects of trade. Third, the project empirically examines how households adjust consumption in response to trade shocks. This project develops a dynamic quantitative framework with incomplete markets, Ricardian Trade, and frictional labor markets. The framework is calibrated to match aggregate and difference-in-difference evidence for the US and then study the transition dynamics of the economy in response to a trade liberalization. The calibrated model is used as laboratory to answer questions on the aggregate effects and the heterogeneity in the gains and losses from trade. The quantitative framework further highlights an open, unstudied issue regarding the labor-market-induced consumption effects of trade. This project provides new evidence on these effects by focusing on recent trade policies between 2017 and 2019.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.