Collaborative Research: Probabilistic Debris Modeling in Coastal Storm Events: A Case of Complex Coupling Between Human-Built-Natural Systems

飓风、热带风暴和洪水等自然灾害会产生大量碎片，对沿海社区构成重大挑战。与清除碎片有关的财政和后勤负担占已偿还回收费用的近三分之一，对公共安全的威胁从受损的应急反应到健康危害。需要更准确的模型来估计风暴之后、最好是风暴之前碎片的存在和数量，以便社区能够更好地准备和管理碎片负担。关于是什么驱动碎片模式的知识有限，因此目前的预测模型不够准确，不足以支持规划或应对，特别是对于多危害风暴事件。此外，沿海地貌不断变化，随着开发模式的转变，预期的碎片数量和位置也在变化。该项目涉及对综合模型的需要，这些模型反映了风暴事件中产生碎片的人为自然系统与对沿海社区的连锁影响之间的复杂耦合。该项目审查了碎片模式的驱动因素，并开发了将这些洞察力与基础设施、社会人口和人类健康影响等结合起来的模型。由此产生的见解可以为政策决策、沿海规划和风险缓解以及碎片管理提供信息。模型成果和政策影响的综合将通过网络托管的互动故事地图分享。该项目将通过推导人-自然系统之间相互作用的耦合模型，改变我们对沿海风暴产生的碎片及其对社区的级联影响的理解。将开发新的方法，对碎片的存在和体积进行概率建模，利用和融合来自过去事件的经验数据、风暴模拟和基于物理的脆弱性估计。通过引入嵌套的统计替代模型，将大大有别于传统的碎片预测模型，该模型由多分辨率土地利用/土地覆盖特征、建筑物或植被的物理脆弱性以及多种灾害风暴强度提供信息。因此，首次实现了发展和碎片潜力的耦合模型，以探索当前和未来的风暴风险和政策情景。通过将碎片的连锁后果模型与社会人口特征相结合，该项目还将阐明区域碎片效应与社会脆弱性之间的关系，为今后的规划、管理和缓解工作提供信息。通过与试验台社区中的利益相关者合作，将促进知识的联合生产和研究方法的实际可行性，以增加所产生的模型对未来计划和决策有用的可能性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Natural disasters, like hurricanes, tropical storms, and flood events, can generate massive amounts of debris, posing significant challenges to coastal communities. Financial and logistical burdens related to debris removal account for nearly a third of reimbursed recovery costs, and threats to public safety range from impaired emergency response to health hazards. There is need for more accurate models to estimate debris presence and quantities after, and preferably prior to a storm, so communities can better prepare for and manage debris burdens. Knowledge about what drives debris patterns is limited, so current predictive models are not accurate enough to support planning or response, particularly for multi-hazard storm events. In addition, coastal landscapes are constantly changing, and as development patterns shift so do prospective debris volumes and locations. This project addresses the need for integrative models that reflect the complex coupling between human-built-natural systems that underpin debris generation in storm events and the cascading impacts on coastal communities. This project examines the drivers of debris patterns and also develops models that couple those insights with infrastructure, socio-demographic, and human health impacts, among others. Resulting insights can inform policy decisions, coastal planning and risk mitigation, and debris management. Synthesis of model outcomes and policy implications will be shared via web hosted interactive story mapping.This project will transform our understanding of debris generation from coastal storms and its cascading consequences on communities by deriving coupled models of the interactions between human-built-natural systems. New methods will be developed for probabilistic modeling of debris presence and volumes, harnessing and fusing empirical data from past events, storm simulations, and physics-based estimates of fragility. A significant departure from traditional debris prediction models will be afforded by introducing nested statistical surrogate models informed by multi-resolution land use/land cover characteristics, physical vulnerability of structures or vegetation, and multi-hazard storm intensities. As a result, coupled models of development and debris potential are enabled for the first time to explore current and future storm risks and policy scenarios. By integrating models of the cascading consequences of debris with socio-demographic characteristics, this project will also shed new light on relationships between regional debris effects and social vulnerability that can inform future planning, management and mitigation efforts. Knowledge co-production and the practical viability of research methods will be advanced by working with stakeholders in testbed communities, to increase the likelihood that resulting models will be useful for future plans and decisions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.