Central Banks in Uncharted Waters: Navigating a World with Large Reserves

摘要在过去的十年里，包括美国联邦储备委员会和欧洲中央银行在内的许多中央银行都取得了巨大的发展，成为金融市场上更为重要的参与者。此外，信息技术的进步导致了通过中央银行数字货币扩大足迹的提议，以及来自私人货币的潜在竞争。作为这些事态发展的副产品，各国央行大幅增加了短期负债，并正在考虑进一步增加，以维持流动性供应的大幅增加。这个项目探讨了最近中央银行转变对货币政策行为的作用，以及数字货币对支付系统效率的影响。这个项目开发了一个分析货币政策的新框架。现有的货币政策框架将美联储视为直接设定家庭储蓄和企业为其投资融资的名义短期利率。这种观点不能解释最近债券定价文献中的经验证据，这些文献记录了短期债券的便利收益率。这一便利收益不仅在平均数量上很大，而且在商业周期中也有所不同。该模型没有明确描述银行的行为，银行被认为是一种面纱。该项目制定的框架考虑了金融中介机构在货币政策方面的作用，除了泰勒式利率规则外，还考虑到储备金的数量。最后，该项目考虑了中央银行数字货币对货币政策和支付系统的影响。这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractDuring the last decade many central banks, including the US Federal Reserves and the European Central Bank (ECB), have grown tremendously to become much more important players in financial markets. Furthermore, advances in information technology have led to proposals of an even larger footprint through Central Bank Digital Currencies as well as looming competition from private monies. As a byproduct of these developments, central banks have dramatically increased their short-term liabilities and are considering further increases to sustain a massive increase in liquidity provision. This project explores the role of the recent transformation of central banks for the conduct of monetary policy, and the implications of digital currencies on the efficiency of the payment system.This project develops a new framework to analyze monetary policy. The existing framework on monetary policy views the Federal Reserve as directly setting the nominal short-term interest rate at which households save and firms finance their investments. This view does not explain recent empirical evidence in the bond pricing literature which has documented a convenience yield on short bonds. This convenience yield is not only quantitatively large on average, it also varies over the business cycle. The model does not explicitly describe the behavior of banks, which are thought of as a veil. The framework developed in this project considers the role of financial intermediaries on monetary policy and takes into consideration the quantity of reserves in addition to a Taylor-type interest-rate rule. Finally, the project considers implications of central bank digital currency on monetary policy and the payment system.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.