The Cross Section of Housing Markets

房地产市场的横截面

• 批准号: 1156320
• 负责人: Monika Piazzesi
• 金额: $ 42.29万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-03-15 至 2017-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1156320&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Cross; Section; Housing; Markets

AbstractProposal Title: The Cross Section of Housing Markets (Proposal No: 1156320) Principal Investigator: Piazzesi, Monika The projects described in this proposal focus on two key properties of housing: houses are (i) indivisible and (ii) heterogeneous by quality, even within geographical units. The proposal has both an empirical and a theoretical component. The empirical work exploits several large property-level data sets to document new stylized facts on the cross section of housing markets. We then proceed to build quantitative models that speak to these facts. The first project uses an assignment model to understand the cross section of capital gains during the 2000-2005 housing boom. The second studies the search process with heterogeneous houses. During the recent house price boom, there were large differences in capital gains across houses, even within the same metro area. In particular, cheap homes appreciated more than expensive homes. The first project studies several potential explanations for this pattern: cheap credit, shifts in the quality distribution of homes, or shifts in the distribution of mover characteristics (such as their income). The goal is to build a quantitative model to assess the role of these differences in the environment. The existing literature has investigated the recent housing boom with models in which housing is viewed as perfectly divisible capital. These models determine a single per-unit price of housing from optimality conditions of all households and thus do not have interesting implications for the cross section of house prices. Instead, this project studies models in which indivisible houses differ by quality. The price of a particular house is then determined by the optimality conditions of the particular subgroup of households who consider buying a house in that quality range. To the extent that a change in the economy (e.g., cheaper credit) affects this subgroup of households more (e.g., poor households depend more on credit), the house prices in their considered quality range will be more responsive (compared to existing models.) The second project studies models with heterogeneous houses and search frictions. In the housing market, sellers post prices without commitment, while buyers scan available houses. The search process is costly and makes houses illiquid. A key question for any quantitative implementation of such a model is ?what market segments do buyers search over?? This project makes progress on this question with databases on price histories from real estate listings (including time on the market as well as price reductions) and search queries on a popular real estate website. The preliminary data investigation indicates that buyers in the cheap segment of the housing market use narrower search criteria, explaining the longer times on the market and higher illiquidity for houses in this segment. The results of the proposed research will be informative about the quantitative role of frictions in housing markets. The recent house price declines have highlighted the importance of understanding the functioning of these markets, which makes these frictions worth studying for academics, policy makers, and the public more broadly.

提案标题：住房市场的交叉部分(提案编号：1156320)首席调查员：皮亚泽西，莫尼卡本提案中描述的项目侧重于住房的两个关键属性：(一)不可分割和(二)质量不同，即使在地理单元内也是如此。该提案既有经验部分，也有理论部分。这项实证工作利用了几个大型房地产水平的数据集，记录了住房市场横截面上的新的风格化事实。然后，我们继续构建与这些事实相吻合的量化模型。第一个项目使用分配模型来理解2000-2005年房地产热潮期间资本收益的横截面。第二部分研究了异质房源的搜索过程。在最近的房价上涨期间，不同房屋的资本收益差异很大，即使是在同一个大都市区内也是如此。特别是，便宜的房子比昂贵的房子升值更多。第一个项目研究了这种模式的几种可能的解释：廉价信贷、房屋质量分布的变化，或者流动特征(如收入)分布的变化。我们的目标是建立一个量化模型来评估这些差异在环境中的作用。现有文献用模型研究了最近的房地产热潮，在这些模型中，房地产被视为完全可分割的资本。这些模型根据所有家庭的最优条件来确定住房的单个单位价格，因此对房价的横截面没有有趣的影响。相反，这个项目研究的是不可分割的房屋质量不同的模型。然后，特定住房的价格由考虑购买该质量范围内的住房的特定家庭分组的最优条件决定。在一定程度上，经济的变化(例如，较低的信贷)对这部分家庭的影响更大(例如，贫困家庭更依赖信贷)，在其所考虑的质量范围内的房价将(与现有模型相比)更具响应性。第二个项目研究了具有异质房屋和搜索摩擦的模型。在房地产市场上，卖家在没有承诺的情况下公布价格，而买家则浏览可供选择的房屋。搜索过程代价高昂，而且使房屋缺乏流动性。量化实施这类模型的一个关键问题是：买家会搜索哪些细分市场？这个项目在这个问题上取得了进展，使用了房地产列表的价格历史数据库(包括上市时间和降价时间)和一个流行的房地产网站上的搜索查询。初步数据调查表明，廉价住房市场的购房者使用较窄的搜索标准，这解释了这一细分市场的房屋在市场上的时间更长，流动性更差。拟议中的研究结果将有助于了解摩擦在住房市场中的量化作用。最近的房价下跌突显了了解这些市场运作的重要性，这使得这些摩擦值得学者、政策制定者和更广泛的公众研究。