RUI: Pattern and process in four decades of change on Caribbean reefs

珊瑚礁危机指的是全世界热带造礁珊瑚的高死亡率，以及珊瑚礁在本世纪内很可能在功能上灭绝。对这些趋势的了解来自对珊瑚礁的监测，以评估其长期健康状况，其中最具信息性的项目提供了数十年来的高分辨率信息。这些项目描述了珊瑚礁如何变化，并回答了有关变化原因和珊瑚礁未来持续存在的形式的问题。该项目的重点是美国沃茨的珊瑚礁，特别是美属维尔京群岛圣约翰周围的珊瑚礁。这些珊瑚礁在维尔京群岛国家公园内受到保护，并且比世界上任何地方的大多数珊瑚礁都得到了更一致和更详细的研究。该项目在33年研究的基础上，将对这些栖息地的监测延长了五年，并利用新出现的知识基础和圣约翰珊瑚礁创建的生物实验室，解决阻碍珊瑚宝宝重新繁殖珊瑚礁的瓶颈的原因和后果。这项工作是通过每年一次的考察来完成的，考察人员包括教师、研究生、本科生和教师，再加上对北岭加州州立大学和塔拉哈西佛罗里达州立大学的样本进行分析。学生和教师协助该项目中心的研究目标，但也参与独立研究，并与加勒比地区丰富多样的社会背景和自然历史相结合。科学议程的范围延伸到加州的学校，向学生介绍海洋动物在生态系统健康中所扮演的角色，生物世界长期变化的概念，以及科学参与在促进积极的环境成果中的作用。除了产生广泛的项目交付成果，重点是科学发现，该项目促进STEM职业和培养全球意识的科学家和教育工作者能够支持美国的科学议程在21世纪世纪。 该项目利用加勒比珊瑚礁最长的时间序列分析之一，将时间序列从33年延长到38年，并测试关于改变珊瑚礁群落结构的原因和后果的假设。该项目的重点是维尔京群岛国家公园内和美属维尔京群岛圣约翰海岸沿着的珊瑚礁，并与从事养护工作的利益攸关方和当地学术界（维尔京群岛大学）进行了整合。从1987年开始，该项目在一个小的空间区域内进行了注重细节的分析，补充了VINP进行的大规模分析。这些努力的结果创造了一个无与伦比的背景下，生态相关的假设可以进行测试，以阐明驱动生态变化的机制。根据基于图像和调查的分析，33年的数据揭示了这些珊瑚礁过渡到低丰度珊瑚状态的程度，以及阻止珊瑚新兵为成年大小类做出贡献的瓶颈的重要性。这个项目的智力价值利用这些发现来解决八个假设：（H1）长期变化正在定义一种神秘的制度变化，珊瑚丰度低的情况因以下因素而得到加强：（H2）社区复原力增强，（H3）定居后成功率低，（H4）佩森内利德藻壳对幼年珊瑚的负面影响，（H5）幼年珊瑚无法将其表型与未来条件相匹配，（H6）遗传多样性减少导致种群增长受损，（H7）迪亚德马海胆周围无PAC的光环对珊瑚补充的重视，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The coral reef crisis refers to the high rates of death affecting tropical reef-building corals throughout the world, and the strong likelihood that coral reefs will become functionally extinct within the current century. Knowledge of these trends comes from the monitoring of coral reefs to evaluate their health over time, with the most informative projects providing high-resolution information extending over decades. Such projects describe both how reefs are changing, and answer questions addressing the causes of the changes and the form in which reefs will persist in the future. This project focuses on coral reefs in United States waters, specifically around St. John in the US Virgin Islands. These reefs are protected within the Virgin Islands National Park, and have been studied more consistently and in greater detail than most reefs anywhere in the world. Building from 33 years of research, this project extends monitoring of these habitats by another five years, and uses the emerging base of knowledge, and the biological laboratory created by the reefs of St. John, to address the causes and consequences of the bottleneck preventing baby corals from repopulating the reefs. The work is accomplished with annual expeditions, staffed by faculty, graduate students, undergraduates, and teachers, coupled with analyses of samples at California State University, Northridge, and Florida State University, Tallahassee. The students and teachers assist with the research goals at the center of this project, but also engage in independent study and integrate with the rich and diverse societal context and natural history of the Caribbean. The scope of the science agenda extends to schools in California, where students are introduced to the roles played by marine animals in ecosystem health, concepts of long-term change in the biological world, and the role of science engagement in promoting positive environmental outcomes. In addition to generating a wide spectrum of project deliverables focusing on scientific discovery, the project promotes STEM careers and train globally aware scientists and educators capable of supporting the science agenda of the United States in the 21st Century. This project leverages one of the longest time-series analyses of Caribbean coral reefs to extend the time-series from 33 to 38 years, and it tests hypotheses addressing the causes and consequences of changing coral reef community structure. The project focuses on reefs within the Virgin Islands National Park (VINP) and along the shore of St. John, US Virgin Islands, and is integrated with stakeholders working in conservation (VINP) and local academia (University of the Virgin Islands). Beginning in 1987, the project has addressed detail-oriented analyses within a small spatial area that complements the large-scale analyses conducted by the VINP. The results of these efforts create an unrivaled context within which ecologically relevant hypotheses can be tested to elucidate mechanisms driving ecological change. Building from image- and survey- based analyses, 33 years of data reveal the extent to which these reefs have transitioned to a low-abundance coral state, and the importance of the bottleneck preventing coral recruits from contributing to adult size classes. The intellectual merits of this project leverage these discoveries to address eight hypotheses: (H1) long-term changes are defining a cryptic regime change, with the low coral abundance reinforced by, (H2) enhanced community resilience, (H3) low post-settlement success, (H4) negative effects of peyssonnelid algal crusts (PAC) on juvenile corals, (H5) inability of juvenile corals to match their phenotypes to future conditions, (H6) impaired population growth caused by reduced genetic diversity, (H7) the premium placed on PAC-free halos around Diadema sea urchins for coral recruitment, and (H8) biotic homogenization occurring on a landscape-scale.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.