RUI: Long-Term Coral Reef Dynamics in the US Virgin Islands: 1987-2008

美国珊瑚礁的长期动态：1987-2008年PI-Peter J.EdmundsInstitution--加利福尼亚州立大学NorthridgeContact--peter.edmunds@csun.edu本提案侧重于美属维尔京群岛(USVI)的珊瑚礁，特别是将现有的对珊瑚礁群落结构的长期研究延长至第22个年头，并提出了四个假说，解决导致这些系统最近和正在发生变化的机制。对群落结构的分析需要记录海底活珊瑚和藻类的相对丰富程度，并对具有生态重要性的物种的单个群体的出生、死亡和增长率进行量化。为了深入了解变化的根本原因，将进行实验并分析现有数据，以便：(I)确定珊瑚成功与其繁殖和取代自己的潜力有关的机制；(Ii)确定高温对杀死珊瑚新成员的重要性；(Iii)衡量具有生态重要性的大型(即老的)珊瑚群的相对丰度如何因最近的扰动而发生变化；以及(Iv)发展预测明天的珊瑚礁将是什么样子，以及哪些物种将在群落中占据主导地位的能力。该项目与VI国家公园的紧密结合提供了明确的沟通渠道，通过这些渠道，结果可以被指导，以便成为与珊瑚礁资源管理有关的决策过程的有效组成部分。为了实现本研究的目标，NSF将通过LTREB计划支持完成一项为期五年的圣约翰(USVI)珊瑚礁分析，该研究人员自1987年以来一直在不断地研究该分析。这个位置的珊瑚礁对美国来说是一种极其重要的资源，因为它们位于一个原始的位置，受到国家公园和国际生物圈保护区系统的保护。由于这种保护，这些珊瑚礁上的变化更有可能反映该区域内海洋生物群落的“自然”动态，而不是归因于城市化和其他人为影响的局部影响。换句话说，圣约翰的珊瑚礁提供了一个独特的参照点，可以用来衡量人类对更受干扰的地区(例如佛罗里达群岛和夏威夷)的影响。该项目的优点在于现有研究的背景、寿命和生产率，这为继续研究提供了经验依据，并提供了一个框架，在此框架内可以制定有意义的假设。这一阶段工作的完成将创造加勒比珊瑚礁年度分辨率最长的量化历史之一，通过解决机械问题，将在理解珊瑚礁群落结构最近变化的原因和后果方面取得实质性进展。

Long-term coral reef dynamics in the USVI: 1987-2008PI - Peter J. EdmundsInstitution -- California State University NorthridgeContact -- peter.edmunds@csun.eduThis proposal focuses on coral reefs in the United States Virgin Islands (USVI), specifically extending an existing long-term study of coral reef community structure into its 22nd year and addressing four hypotheses addressing the mechanisms responsible for recent and ongoing changes in these systems. The analysis of the community structure entails documenting the relative abundance of live coral and algae on the sea floor, and quantifying the birth, death and growth rates of individual colonies of ecologically important species. To gain insight into the underlying causes of change, experiments will be conducted and existing data analyzed in order to: (i) identify the mechanisms relating coral success to their potential to reproduce and replace themselves, (ii) determine the importance of high temperature in killing coral recruits, (iii) gauge how the relative abundance of coral colonies of ecologically important sizes - namely large (i.e., old) colonies - has been changed by recent disturbances, and (iv) develop the capacity to forecast what the reefs of tomorrow will look like, and which species will dominate the communities. Close integration of this project with the VI National Park provides clear channels of communication through which the results can be directed in order to be effective components of the decision making process concerning the management of coral reef resources.To achieve the goals of this study, NSF support through the LTREB program will be used to complete a five-year analysis of coral reefs in St. John (USVI) that have been studied continuously by this investigator since 1987. Reefs in this location represent a resource of profound importance to the United States because they occur in a pristine location that is protected within a National Park and the international system of Biosphere Reserves. Because of this protection, changes on these reefs are more likely to reflect the "natural" dynamics of marine communities within this region rather than local effects attributed to urbanization and other human-induced effects. In other words, the reefs of St. John provide a unique reference site against which the effects of human impacts in more disturbed locations (for example, the Florida Keys and Hawaii) can be gauged. The merits of this project lie in the context, longevity and productivity of the existing study that provides an empirical justification to continue the research, as well as a framework within which meaningful hypotheses can be developed. Completion of this phase of the work will create one of the longest quantitative histories with annual resolution of a Caribbean reef, and by addressing mechanistic questions substantial advances will be made in understanding the causes and consequences of recent changes in coral reef community structure.