RUI: Long-Term Coral Reef Dynamics in the US Virgin Islands: 1987-2008

美属维尔京群岛的长期珊瑚礁动态：1987-2008年pi - Peter J. edmunds研究所-加州州立大学NorthridgeContact - peter.edmunds@csun.eduThis提案重点关注美属维尔京群岛（USVI）的珊瑚礁，特别是将现有的珊瑚礁群落结构长期研究扩展到第22年，并提出了四个假设，解决了这些系统最近和正在发生变化的机制。对群落结构的分析需要记录海底活珊瑚和藻类的相对丰度，并量化生态上重要物种的个别群落的出生、死亡和增长率。为了深入了解变化的根本原因，将进行实验并分析现有数据，以便：(i)确定与珊瑚成功繁殖和自我替换潜力相关的机制，（ii）确定高温对杀死新珊瑚的重要性，（iii）衡量具有重要生态规模的珊瑚群落的相对丰度-即大（即老）群落-如何因最近的干扰而发生变化，以及（iv）发展预测未来珊瑚礁的样子的能力，以及哪些物种将主导群落。该项目与第六国家公园的紧密结合提供了清晰的沟通渠道，通过该渠道可以指导结果，从而成为有关珊瑚礁资源管理决策过程的有效组成部分。为了实现本研究的目标，NSF通过LTREB计划的支持将用于完成对圣约翰（美属维尔京群岛）珊瑚礁的五年分析，该研究人员自1987年以来一直在研究这些珊瑚礁。这个地方的珊瑚礁对美国来说是一种意义深远的资源，因为它们位于一个原始的地方，受到国家公园和国际生物圈保护区系统的保护。由于这种保护，这些珊瑚礁的变化更有可能反映该地区海洋群落的“自然”动态，而不是归因于城市化和其他人为影响的局部影响。换句话说，圣约翰的珊瑚礁提供了一个独特的参考点，可以衡量人类对更受干扰的地区（例如，佛罗里达群岛和夏威夷）的影响。本项目的优点在于现有研究的背景，寿命和生产力，为继续研究提供了实证理由，以及可以发展有意义的假设的框架。完成这一阶段的工作将创造出加勒比珊瑚礁年度解决方案中最长的定量历史之一，通过解决机械问题，将在了解珊瑚礁群落结构最近变化的原因和后果方面取得实质性进展。

Long-term coral reef dynamics in the USVI: 1987-2008PI - Peter J. EdmundsInstitution -- California State University NorthridgeContact -- peter.edmunds@csun.eduThis proposal focuses on coral reefs in the United States Virgin Islands (USVI), specifically extending an existing long-term study of coral reef community structure into its 22nd year and addressing four hypotheses addressing the mechanisms responsible for recent and ongoing changes in these systems. The analysis of the community structure entails documenting the relative abundance of live coral and algae on the sea floor, and quantifying the birth, death and growth rates of individual colonies of ecologically important species. To gain insight into the underlying causes of change, experiments will be conducted and existing data analyzed in order to: (i) identify the mechanisms relating coral success to their potential to reproduce and replace themselves, (ii) determine the importance of high temperature in killing coral recruits, (iii) gauge how the relative abundance of coral colonies of ecologically important sizes - namely large (i.e., old) colonies - has been changed by recent disturbances, and (iv) develop the capacity to forecast what the reefs of tomorrow will look like, and which species will dominate the communities. Close integration of this project with the VI National Park provides clear channels of communication through which the results can be directed in order to be effective components of the decision making process concerning the management of coral reef resources.To achieve the goals of this study, NSF support through the LTREB program will be used to complete a five-year analysis of coral reefs in St. John (USVI) that have been studied continuously by this investigator since 1987. Reefs in this location represent a resource of profound importance to the United States because they occur in a pristine location that is protected within a National Park and the international system of Biosphere Reserves. Because of this protection, changes on these reefs are more likely to reflect the "natural" dynamics of marine communities within this region rather than local effects attributed to urbanization and other human-induced effects. In other words, the reefs of St. John provide a unique reference site against which the effects of human impacts in more disturbed locations (for example, the Florida Keys and Hawaii) can be gauged. The merits of this project lie in the context, longevity and productivity of the existing study that provides an empirical justification to continue the research, as well as a framework within which meaningful hypotheses can be developed. Completion of this phase of the work will create one of the longest quantitative histories with annual resolution of a Caribbean reef, and by addressing mechanistic questions substantial advances will be made in understanding the causes and consequences of recent changes in coral reef community structure.