INFEWS: U.S.-China: Food-Energy-Water Feedback Mechanism, Integrated Modeling and Coordinated Management: A Comparative Study of China Jing-Jin-Ji Region and US Central Valley CA

这项研究项目将使用将农业土地利用、能源生产和水文系统相结合的建模技术来预测未来的食物-能源-水(少数)关系。以中央山谷、加利福尼亚州(美国)和京津冀地区(中国)为个案研究，将制定统一的情景分析方法，以评估基础设施发展和政策优先事项的潜在协同作用和权衡。政策模拟的结果将为未来资源限制的潜在解决方案提供信息。在美国案例研究地区，建模将通过更详细地描述中央山谷的土地使用系统，同时考虑到新政策和可再生能源选址考虑下的农业土地置换的经济机会成本，为政策讨论提供信息。其他模拟分析将测试针对每个地区挑战的替代解决方案，包括地下水储存设置、新的水交易方案，以评估这些解决方案是否对未来的社会经济、政策和环境条件具有弹性。尽管先前的NEXTS研究纳入了代表农业生产可能性的土地利用考虑，但大规模可再生能源扩张、农业土地资源管理和未来替代气候条件下的水资源需求之间的动态反馈需要按照本项目的计划进行进一步探索。此外，这项研究将明确更新公开可用的加州价值综合网络(Calvin)中央山谷地区的水文经济建模基础设施，提供该地区农业用水需求下潜在土地利用轨迹的新视角，这些轨迹可能随着可再生能源基础设施投资和地下水管理动态而随时间演变。与中国研究团队合作进行的协调情景分析将对不断变化的社会经济、政策和环境条件下的联系挑战和解决方案进行比较评估。研究团队将深入了解机构对少数几个结点的限制如何影响最优资源分配和潜在的解决方案，以改善少数几个结点的可持续结果。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research project will use modeling techniques that integrate agricultural land use, energy generation, and hydrologic systems to predict future food-energy-water (FEW) relationships. With the Central Valley, California (United States) and the Jing-Jin-Ji region (China) as case studies, a harmonized scenario-analysis approach will be developed to evaluate potential synergies and trade-offs of infrastructure development and policy priorities. Results from policy simulations will inform potential solutions to future resource limitations. In the U.S. case-study region, modeling will inform policy discussions by offering a more detailed depiction of land-use systems in the Central Valley, while accounting for the economic opportunity costs of agricultural land displacement under new policies and renewable energy-siting considerations. Additional simulation analysis will test alternative solutions to challenges in each region, including groundwater storage set-asides, new water trading schemes to assess whether these solutions are resilient to future socioeconomic, policy, and environmental conditions.While previous nexus studies have incorporated land use considerations for representing agricultural production possibilities, the dynamic feedback between large-scale renewable energy expansion, agricultural land resource management, and water resource demands under alternative future climate conditions needs further exploration as planned for this project. Furthermore, this research will explicitly inform updates to the publicly available California Value Integrated Network (CALVIN) hydro-economic modeling infrastructure for the Central Valley region by offering new perspective potential land use trajectories in the region under agricultural water demands that might evolve over time with renewable energy infrastructure investments and groundwater management dynamics. Harmonized scenario analysis in collaboration with the Chinese research team will provide a comparative assessment of nexus challenges and solutions under changing socioeconomic, policy, and environmental conditions. The research team will offer insight into how institutional constraints on the FEW nexus can impact optimal resource allocation and potential solutions that could improve sustainability outcomes in the FEW nexus.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.