Collaborative Research: RAPID: Integrative Modeling of Intervention Serology and the Role of Shield Immunity in Reducing COVID-19 Epidemic Spread

制定能够减少传播和减轻社会距离的影响的干预战略是应对正在进行的新冠肺炎大流行的近期和长期公共卫生对策的一个基本目标。该项目将新冠肺炎的流行病模型与血清学测试模块相结合，以制定可操作的政策，以有力地识别具有SARS-CoV-2019年保护性抗体的康复个人，以此作为(I)减少感染传播的手段；(Ii)促进可降低传播风险的相互作用替代(‘屏蔽免疫’的基础)；(Iii)使经济活动能够更安全地恢复正常。盾牌免疫模型研究的结果将通过开源软件发布，通过指导血清学检测计划的设计、解释和采取行动的决策文件传播，并通过快速反应报告与地方、州和国家决策者(如疾控中心)沟通。该项目将帮助评估扩大有针对性的血清学检测的可行性，并保护基于免疫的干预措施，以促进公共利益和经济重新参与。此外，该项目还将为研究生提供培训机会和博士后奖学金。缓解和遏制新冠肺炎的本地传播已成为主要手段。考虑到对社会经济健康和福祉的严重后果，包括封锁和就地避难令在内的公共卫生干预措施既减少了感染，又提出了可持续性和长期策略的问题。该项目通过扩展“屏蔽免疫”的概念和实践基础来扩展干预方法，即确定和部署康复的个人作为联络点，通过相互作用取代未知疾病状态的个人之间的其他高风险接触，以维持更安全的互动。该项目通过将检测能力和可靠性的实际扩展结合到一个综合框架中，并明确考虑到关于疾病状态和血清检测状态的个人状态，来评估屏蔽免疫的实际潜力。总而言之，这项研究整合了流行病学动力学、非线性动力学和统计测试分析。对交互作用替代、测试规模和测试可靠性的综合影响的分析将有助于为谨慎利用有关血清转换和免疫的信息以帮助控制新冠肺炎传播的努力提供信息，同时促进个人更安全地重返经济和社会活动。这一快速奖项是由环境生物学部门传染病生态学和进化计划利用冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全(CARE)法案的资金颁发的。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Developing intervention strategies that can reduce transmission and alleviate the impacts of social distancing is an essential goal of near- and long-term public health responses to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This project combines epidemic models of COVID-19 with serological testing modules to develop actionable policies to robustly identify recovered individuals who have protective antibodies to SARS-CoV-2019 as a means to (i) reduce infection transmission; (ii) facilitate interaction substitution that can reduce transmission risk (the basis for ‘shield immunity’); (iii) enable safer return to normal economic activity. Findings from shield immunity modeling studies will be released via open-source software, disseminated via policy-making documents that guide the design, interpretation, and action-taking from serological testing initiatives, and communicated with local, state, and national decision makers (e.g. CDC) via rapid response reports. The project will help assess feasibility of scaling up targeted serological testing and shield immunity-based interventions for the public good and economic re-engagement. Additionally, this project will provide training opportunities for graduate students and a postdoctoral scholar.Mitigation and suppression have emerged as the primary means to control and contain local spread of COVID-19. Public health interventions including lockdowns and shelter-in-place orders both reduce infections and raise questions of sustainability and long-term tactics, given the drastic consequences for socio-economic health and well-being. This project expands intervention approaches by extending the conceptual and practical foundations for ‘shield immunity’, i.e., the identification and deployment of recovered individuals as focal points for sustaining safer interactions via interaction substitution of otherwise risky contacts between individuals of unknown disease status. This project evaluates the practical potential of shield immunity by combining realistic scale-out of test capacity and reliability into an integrated framework with explicit consideration of individual status both with respect to disease status and with respect to serological test status. Altogether, the research integrates epidemiological dynamics, nonlinear dynamics, and statistical test analytics. The analysis of combined effects of interaction substitution, test scale, and test reliability will help inform efforts to prudently leverage information on seroconversion and immunity to help control COVID-19 spread while facilitating the safer return of individuals back to economic and social activities. This RAPID award is made by the Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease Program in the Division of Environmental Biology, using funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.