Collaborative Research: RAPID: Integrative Modeling of Intervention Serology and the Role of Shield Immunity in Reducing COVID-19 Epidemic Spread

制定能够减少传播和减轻社交距离影响的干预战略，是应对当前COVID-19大流行的近期和长期公共卫生对策的一项重要目标。该项目将COVID-19的流行模型与血清学检测模块相结合，制定可操作的政策，以强有力地识别具有SARS-CoV-2019保护性抗体的康复个体，从而实现以下目标：(1)减少感染传播；㈡促进可减少传播风险的相互作用替代（“屏蔽免疫”的基础）；（iii）能够更安全地恢复正常的经济活动。屏蔽免疫模型研究的结果将通过开源软件发布，通过指导血清学检测举措的设计、解释和行动的决策文件传播，并通过快速反应报告与地方、州和国家决策者（例如疾病预防控制中心）沟通。该项目将有助于评估扩大针对性血清学检测和保护基于免疫的干预措施的可行性，以促进公共利益和经济重新参与。此外，该项目将为研究生和博士后学者提供培训机会。缓解和抑制已成为控制和遏制COVID-19本地传播的主要手段。考虑到对社会经济健康和福祉的严重影响，包括封锁和安置令在内的公共卫生干预措施既减少了感染，也提出了可持续性和长期策略的问题。该项目扩展了干预方法，扩大了“盾牌免疫”的概念和实践基础，即确定和部署已康复的个人作为联络点，通过相互替代疾病状况未知的个人之间的其他危险接触，维持更安全的相互作用。该项目通过将实际的大规模测试能力和可靠性结合到一个综合框架中，并明确考虑个人在疾病状况和血清学测试状况方面的状况，评估屏蔽免疫的实际潜力。总之，该研究整合了流行病学动力学、非线性动力学和统计测试分析。分析相互替代、检测规模和检测信度的综合效应，将有助于审慎利用血清转化和免疫信息，帮助控制COVID-19的传播，同时促进个人更安全地重返经济和社会活动。该RAPID奖由环境生物学部传染病生态学和进化项目提供，资金来自《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Developing intervention strategies that can reduce transmission and alleviate the impacts of social distancing is an essential goal of near- and long-term public health responses to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This project combines epidemic models of COVID-19 with serological testing modules to develop actionable policies to robustly identify recovered individuals who have protective antibodies to SARS-CoV-2019 as a means to (i) reduce infection transmission; (ii) facilitate interaction substitution that can reduce transmission risk (the basis for ‘shield immunity’); (iii) enable safer return to normal economic activity. Findings from shield immunity modeling studies will be released via open-source software, disseminated via policy-making documents that guide the design, interpretation, and action-taking from serological testing initiatives, and communicated with local, state, and national decision makers (e.g. CDC) via rapid response reports. The project will help assess feasibility of scaling up targeted serological testing and shield immunity-based interventions for the public good and economic re-engagement. Additionally, this project will provide training opportunities for graduate students and a postdoctoral scholar.Mitigation and suppression have emerged as the primary means to control and contain local spread of COVID-19. Public health interventions including lockdowns and shelter-in-place orders both reduce infections and raise questions of sustainability and long-term tactics, given the drastic consequences for socio-economic health and well-being. This project expands intervention approaches by extending the conceptual and practical foundations for ‘shield immunity’, i.e., the identification and deployment of recovered individuals as focal points for sustaining safer interactions via interaction substitution of otherwise risky contacts between individuals of unknown disease status. This project evaluates the practical potential of shield immunity by combining realistic scale-out of test capacity and reliability into an integrated framework with explicit consideration of individual status both with respect to disease status and with respect to serological test status. Altogether, the research integrates epidemiological dynamics, nonlinear dynamics, and statistical test analytics. The analysis of combined effects of interaction substitution, test scale, and test reliability will help inform efforts to prudently leverage information on seroconversion and immunity to help control COVID-19 spread while facilitating the safer return of individuals back to economic and social activities. This RAPID award is made by the Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease Program in the Division of Environmental Biology, using funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.