RAPID: Eco-epidemiological, population, and community ecology implications of RHDV2 emergence in New World lagomorphs (rabbits and close relatives)

从2020年初开始，由于一种新的病原体：兔出血症病毒2(RHDV2)的引入，美国西南部多个物种的野兔种群发生了大规模死亡事件。这种病毒很可能是通过非本地欧洲家养兔子的贸易进入北美的。这种病毒正在迅速传播。在新墨西哥州东南部和得克萨斯州西南部的死野兔身上发现RHDV2病毒不到四个月后，它已经蔓延到美国七个州和墨西哥多个市政当局，并影响了六种兔子。这一疫情也得到了媒体的广泛报道，其中大部分强调对RHDV2的影响知之甚少，以及兔子种群的变化可能反过来影响动植物群落。这项工作将提供关于RHDV2如何影响兔子种群及其相关生态系统的详细信息，以及关于兔子从感染中恢复的潜力的信息。这项研究还将深入了解一种新的病原体可能在多大程度上影响草食动物及其捕食者的丰度，从而在旱地生态系统的结构和功能中发挥重要作用。这些信息将被提供给负责管理本地和家养兔子的州、联邦和部落野生动物和农业合作机构。该项目将提供关于这种新出现的病毒是否能够以及如何在由多个宿主物种组成的动物群落中持续存在的见解，以及它是否通过较小爆发的拼凑和连续的病毒波传播。这项研究将通过以下方式解决这些问题：(1)对有暴发前数据的兔子种群进行占有率和丰度调查，以确定在接触RHDV2后种群数量发生了怎样的变化，以及(2)对兔子种群进行血清学评估，以了解一些个体是否在接触RHDV2后存活下来。这些信息将被用来(3)开发流行病学模型，以了解病毒可能如何影响兔子种群，以及它如何在包括多种兔子宿主物种的生态系统中持续存在。这些信息还将允许(4)预测RHDV2是否以及如何在尚未发生RHDV2的地区传播。最后，该项目还将允许数据收集，以(5)了解RHDV2以及相关的兔子数量下降如何影响依赖兔子的捕食者群落。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Beginning in early 2020, populations of multiple species of wild rabbits in the southwestern US have had mass mortality events due to the introduction of a novel pathogen: rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2). This virus likely arrived in North America via the trade in non-native domestic European rabbits. The virus is spreading rapidly. Less than four months after RHDV2 was identified in dead wild rabbits in southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas, it has spread to seven US states and multiple Mexican municipalities, and has affected six rabbit species. The epidemic has also received extensive press coverage, much of it emphasizing how little is understood about impacts of RHDV2, and how changes in rabbit populations might in turn influence plant and animal communities. This work will provide detailed information on how RHDV2 influences rabbit populations and their associated ecosystems, and also information on the potential for rabbits to recover from infection. The study will also allow insights into the extent to which a novel pathogen might influence the abundance of herbivores and their predators, and thus play a significant role in the structure and function of arid-land ecosystems. This information will be provided to partnering state, federal and tribal wildlife and agricultural agencies who are tasked with managing native and domestic rabbits.The project will provide insights into whether and how this emerging virus is able to persist in an animal community comprised of multiple host species, and whether it is spreading via a patchwork of smaller outbreaks versus a contiguous viral wave. This research will address these issues by (1) conducting occupancy and abundance surveys of rabbit populations for which pre-outbreak data are available to determine how the populations have changed numerically following RHDV2 exposure, and (2) serological assessments of rabbit populations to understand whether some individuals survive exposure to RHDV2. This information in turn will be used to (3) develop epidemiologic models to understand how the virus may affect rabbit populations, and how it may persist in ecosystems that include multiple rabbit host species. The information will also permit (4) predictions of whether and how RHDV2 is likely to spread in regions where it has yet to occur. Finally, this project will also allow for data collection to (5) understand how RHDV2, and the associated declines in rabbit abundance, may influence the predator community that depends on rabbits for food.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.