CAREER: Dynamic adaptation of water resources systems to navigate uncertain hydrologic and human stressors

水资源基础设施和管理对于社区和生态系统的可持续性至关重要。尽管未来预测存在严重的不确定性，但它们必须适应日益增加的水文变化。最近的研究表明了适应性水规划的价值，这涉及到确定如何在未来可能出现的一系列情况下进行导航。然而，面对不确定性，动态适应仍然是一个重大挑战。这不仅包括受自然变化影响的极端洪水和干旱的影响，还包括土地使用等人类行为的影响。这个职业生涯项目的总体目标是推进水资源系统面临的耦合和不断变化的压力源的基本理解，并利用这种动态信息来改变不确定性下的适应性规划过程。这一目标将在北方加州水资源系统的背景下实现，并得到州和地方水机构的持续参与的支持。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Water resources infrastructure and management are central to the sustainability of communities and ecosystems. They must adapt to increasing hydrologic variability despite severe uncertainty in future projections. Recent studies have demonstrated the value of adaptive water planning, which involves determining how to navigate a range of possible future conditions as they unfold. However, dynamic adaptation remains a significant challenge in the face of uncertainties. This includes not only the impacts of extreme floods and droughts, which are confounded by natural variability, but also impacts of human behavior such as land use. The overarching goal of this CAREER project is to advance fundamental understanding of the coupled and evolving stressors facing water resources systems, and to leverage this dynamic information to transform the process of adaptive planning under uncertainty. This goal is to be achieved within the context of the northern California water resources system, supported by sustained engagement with state and local water agencies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.