CAREER: How Transportation User Experiences Shape Future Behavior: Learning from the Past

该学院早期职业发展（Career）奖支持基础行为研究，以了解是什么驱使人们从以可持续交通方式为导向的生活方式（特别是交通）转变为以汽车为导向的生活方式。尽管价格合理、减少拥堵并与低温室气体排放相关的城市交通系统至关重要，但过去十年的发展表明，许多多式联运旅客最终会转向单人汽车出行。理解这些变化的关键可能是过去的旅行经历、旅行满意度和旅行中的主观幸福感如何影响未来旅行者的决策，但这些影响并没有被当前的建模方法充分捕捉到。本研究开发了一种新的分析框架来模拟和预测这种反馈效应，这将使人们对城市旅行的长期动态有更丰富的了解，并改进旅行需求预测工具。因此，该研究支持旨在提高城市旅行的环境和社会可持续性以及提供和维护高质量公共交通服务的政策和基础设施投资决策的制定。这些努力对于为关注的社区提供方便和负担得起的交通选择和机会，实现气候目标，增强国家的经济弹性至关重要。研究活动与教育活动相结合，以提高交通工程学生的关键技能，并在俄亥俄州哥伦布市的小学生中建立早期对交通工程的兴奋和意识。全面的外展活动在项目早期和整个过程中吸引过境从业人员，确保研究与实践的相关性和适用性。在前人研究的基础上，提出了旅游经历、旅游满意度和主观幸福感影响未来旅游行为的几种行为机制假说。这些机制的调查使用详细的旅行日记数据，从多模式的旅行者在一个主要的美国大都市区和适当的计量经济模型。本研究的新颖之处在于，第一次系统地研究了满意度/主观幸福感、信念和选择之间的动态关系。这项研究的重点是交通工具的使用，但其目的是得出有关行为过程的一般性见解，这些见解与科学界对旅行者选择的理论概念化有关。这支持了该领域向一个新兴的整体模型的转变，该模型在旅行者选择框架的传统新古典经济学元素中添加了情感成分。研究结果将转化为新的绩效指标，供交通机构和都市规划组织用于量化交通服务质量与乘客行为之间的联系，并更好地量化公共资金对交通的影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) award supports foundational behavioral research to understand what drives shifts from lifestyles oriented toward sustainable transportation modes – transit in particular – to auto-oriented lifestyles. Despite the critical importance of urban transportation systems that are affordable, reduce congestion, and are associated with low greenhouse gas emissions, developments over the last decade suggest that many multi-modal travelers eventually migrate to single-occupancy automobile travel. A key to understanding these shifts may be the way in which past travel experiences, satisfaction with travel, and subjective well-being during travel shape future traveler decision-making, but these effects are not sufficiently captured by current modeling approaches. This research develops a novel analytical framework to model and forecast such feedback effects, which will lead to a richer understanding of the long-term dynamics of urban travel and an improvement of travel demand forecasting tools. Thus, the research supports the development of policies and infrastructure investment decisions that aim to increase the environmental and social sustainability of urban travel and the provision and maintenance of high-quality public transportation services. Such efforts are central to providing accessible and affordable transportation options and access to opportunities to communities of concern, to meeting climate goals, and to enhancing the nation’s economic resilience. The research activities are integrated with educational activities to improve critical skills of transportation engineering students and build early excitement and awareness of transportation engineering among elementary school students in Columbus, Ohio. Comprehensive outreach activities engage transit practitioners early and throughout the project and ensure the relevance and applicability of the research to practice.Based on prior research, several behavioral mechanisms are hypothesized through which past travel experiences, satisfaction with travel, and subjective well-being (SWB) during travel shape future travel behavior. These mechanisms are investigated using detailed travel diary data from multi-modal travelers in a major US metropolitan area and appropriate econometric models. The novelty of this research lies in that, for the first time, the dynamics between satisfaction/SWB, beliefs, and choices are systematically studied. The research focuses on transit use but aims to derive generalizable insights about behavioral processes that tie in with the scientific community’s theoretical conceptualization of traveler choices. This supports the transformation of the field toward an emerging, holistic model that adds affective components to the traditional neoclassical economic elements of the traveler choice framework. The results will be translated into novel performance metrics that can be used by transit agencies and metropolitan planning organizations to quantify the link between transit service quality and passenger behavior and to better quantify the impacts of public funding for transit.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.