Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Low-Income Expectations and Student Loan Repayment Plan Choice

该奖项全部或部分由《2021年美国救援计划法案》（公法117-2）资助。在美国，大多数上大学的人都以学生贷款的形式向联邦政府借钱。他们离开学校后，借款人通过每月偿还贷款来偿还学生贷款。联邦学生贷款借款人必须支付的最低还款额是由以下两种选择决定的：(1)每月固定还款额的抵押贷款式还款计划；(2)最低还款额与借款人收入相关的基于收入的还款（IBR）计划。借款人可能选择抵押贷款式还款计划而不是IBR计划的一个原因是对低收入风险的错误判断。本研究将探讨是否可以通过向大学高年级和大三学生提供有关低收入风险的信息来提高IBR的吸收。研究人员将在美国的一所大型大学进行信息实验，并向一半的被调查学生提供针对其专业的低收入风险信息。然后，该项目将检查信息的提供是否会改变学生对IBR计划的偏好，以及学生的特征如何改变反应。该提案的结果将提高对联邦学生贷款的理解，并将对这些贷款的沟通产生潜在影响。以收入为基础的学生贷款偿还为借款人提供了相对于其收入的高额还款负担的保险。IBR计划的学生拖欠学生贷款的可能性要小得多。尽管有这些好处，大多数学生还是选择了抵押贷款式的还款计划，在这种计划中，还款不会随着借款人的收入而变化。该项目将探讨这一结果是否部分由借款人在毕业后获得低收入收入的主观概率较低造成。这一假设将通过对美国一所大型大学的三年级和四年级学生进行调查实验来验证。一半的调查对象将获得与专业相关的大学毕业生的收入信息。然后，这些学生将被问及他们未来的收入预期，以及在假设的借款场景下他们对学生贷款偿还计划的选择。这个项目的结果将推动联邦学生贷款的知识体系。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).Most individuals in the United States who attend college borrow money from the Federal government in the form of student loans. After they leave school, borrowers pay back their student loans by making monthly loan payments. The minimum payment Federal student loan borrowers must make is determined by a choice between: (1) a mortgage style repayment plan with fixed monthly payments and (2) income-based repayment (IBR) plans where minimum payments are related to the borrower’s income. One reason borrowers may choose mortgage style repayment plans rather than IBR plans is mis-judgement of risk of earning a low income. This research will explore whether IBR uptake can be improved by providing information about low-income risk to seniors and juniors in college. The researchers will run an information experiment at a large university in the U.S. Half of surveyed students will be provided with information on low-income risks tailored to their specific majors. The project will then examine whether provision of the information changes student preferences for IBR plans and how the responses vary by student characteristics. The outcomes of this proposal will improve the understanding of federal student loans and will have potential implications regarding the communication of these loans. Income-based student loan repayment provides borrowers with insurance against high repayment burdens relative to their income. Students on IBR plans are significantly less likely to default on their student loans. Despite these benefits, most students choose to stay on mortgage style repayment plans where payments do not change with the borrower's income. This project will explore whether this outcome is partially caused by borrowers having low subjective probabilities of earning a low-income after they graduate. This hypothesis will be tested using a survey experiment fielded to juniors and seniors at a large university in the U.S. Half of survey respondents will be provided the information on the incomes of college graduates with their major. These students will then be asked about their future income expectations and their choice of student loan repayment plan under a hypothetical borrowing scenario. The results of this project will advance the body of knowledge on federal student loans.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.