P2C2: Integrating Multiproxy Records of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Last Millennia to Contextualize 21st (twenty-first) Century Events in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

该奖项全部或部分由2021年美国救援计划法案（公法117-2）资助，改善美国东南部过去热带气旋（TC）活动和相关大规模大气驱动机制的气候记录将促进对过去TC特征及其在沿海环境中留下的印记的认识和理解。该项目旨在建立一个全面的热带气旋活动多代理数据库，包括过去150年墨西哥湾北方沿海系统的风暴频率和强度。具体来说，研究人员将每年与季节性分解的树木年轮记录进行比较，这些树木年轮记录作为TC代理，而沉积物芯中记录的高强度TC事件的分辨率较低。该项目将利用现有的、特定地点的、校准良好的TC沉积物记录，结合TC事件的仪器记录和历史记录，为美国东南部每个地点开发一个150年的TC事件记录，从而为nGoM开发一个热带气旋发生的多代理数据库。此外，将重新分析已建立的TC沉积物记录的颗粒大小，以模拟150年期间的TC浪涌强度。该项目还将通过分析多个树种（主要是湿地松、长叶松和秃柏）的现存集合，开发东南部TC活动的年度解析年轮记录，这些树种已知寿命长（约200- 2500年），并对东南部多个地点的水文气候变化做出反应。研究人员将分析各种示踪剂，包括环宽度和稳定的氧同位素，为期约150年，以校准从沉积物和仪器记录中开发的约束TC年代学。潜在的更广泛影响包括开发和校准过去150年来墨西哥湾北方（nGoM）的热带气旋（TC）数据集。这些数据可用于改进灾害影响评估、沿海生态系统复原力和热带气旋预测。鉴于预计的气候变化，非墨西哥湾沿岸沿着的沿海社区面临极大的风险。此外，确定热带气旋影响最大的地理区域可以让当地利益相关者了解热带气旋的最新趋势和主要驱动因素，从而改善飓风预报和应对，并节省经济，文化和生态重要资源。该项目的结果将分发给气候建模者、利益相关者、沿海管理者和政策制定者，以告知大风、风暴潮和强降雨造成的热带气旋损害的规划。从这项研究中获得的数据将公开提供。该项目将支持两名早期职业研究人员，并将为亚拉巴马塔斯卡卢萨大学的研究生和本科生提供教育、研究培训和专业发展机会。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2)Improving the climate record of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity and related large-scale atmospheric driving mechanisms in the Southeast United States will advance knowledge and understanding of past TC characteristics and their mark left in the coastal environment. This project aims to develop a comprehensive multi-proxy database of tropical cyclone (TC) activity, including storm frequency and intensity throughout the last 150 years for northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) coastal systems. Specifically, the researchers will compare annually to seasonally resolved tree-ring records that act as TC proxies with lower resolution records of high intensity TC events recorded in sediment cores. The project will develop a multi-proxy database of tropical cyclone occurrence for the nGoM by using existing, site-specific, well-calibrated sediment records of TCs in conjunction with instrumental and historical records of TC events to develop a 150-year record of TC events for each site in southeastern US. Additionally, particle size from established sediment records of TCs will be re-analyzed to model TC surge intensity over the 150-year period. The project will also develop annually resolved tree-ring records of TC activity for the Southeast by analyzing extant collections of multiple tree species (principally slash pine, longleaf pine, and bald cypress) that are known to be long-lived (~200–2,500 years), and are responsive to hydroclimatic variability, in multiple locations throughout the Southeast. The researchers will analyze various tracers including ring width and stable oxygen isotopes for a period of ~150 years to calibrate against the constrained TC chronology developed from sediment and instrumental records. The potential Broader Impacts include the development and calibration of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) data set over the last 150 years for the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM). This data can be used to improve assessments of hazard impact, coastal ecosystem resiliency, and predictions of Tropical Cyclones. Coastal communities along the nGoM coast are at extreme risk in the light of projected climate change. Additionally, identifying geographic regions of greatest impact from TCs can inform local stakeholders on recent TC trends and the primary drivers, thus improving hurricane forecasts and response, and saving economic, cultural, and ecologically important resources. The results of the project will be disseminated to climate modelers, and to stakeholders, coastal managers, and policy makers to inform planning for TC damage from high winds, storm surge, and intense rainfall. Data developed from this research will be made publicly available. The project will support two early career researchers and will provide educational, research training and professional development opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students at University of Alabama Tuscaloosa.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.