RAPID: Tracking and Deconstructing COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution as an Extreme Logistics Event

这项快速反应研究(RAPID)拨款将记录和调查新冠肺炎疫苗的部署和分发，作为一项大型复杂的极端物流活动。鉴于这一行动独特的前所未有的规模、规模和紧迫性，以及其快速发展的性质，必须记录其发展和部署，并为未来极端后勤行动的规划、设计和运作吸取经验教训。通过接种疫苗控制病毒将使美国和世界各地的经济和社会生活正常化，重新开放至关重要的地方、区域和国际经济。鉴于生命、生产力和经济产出的巨大损失，以及糟糕的教育和心理健康结果，必须对疫苗部署过程进行评估，为未来的极端后勤行动吸取经验教训，包括未来的流行病、健康威胁以及对重大自然和人为灾难的应对。这项研究将实时记录新冠肺炎疫苗供应链的状况，包括一段时间内的疫苗接种率，为持续部署过程的后半部分提供临时指导，并为未来极端物流部署(包括其他与健康相关的危机和灾害应对情况)的稳健设计和弹性运作提取经验教训和原则。研究结果将有助于解决以下问题：(1)美国物流系统和整个生物制药供应链在期望的规模和期望的紧急时间框架内提供疫苗的能力；(2)达到目标疫苗接种水平所需的时间框架；(3)疫苗供应链和分销过程中的主要脆弱性；(4)整体供应链的弹性，即疫苗的安全。这些因素包括：(1)各种来源造成的中断；(5)向传统上服务不足的人群提供后勤服务的公平性；(6)实时信息在加强极端后勤工作的稳健性和复原力以及建立公众对这些工作的信任方面的价值。参与分发过程的专家和利益攸关方咨询委员会将进一步为这项工作提供信息。科学意义来自于物流过程前所未有的规模、紧迫性和复杂性，包括(A)由来自相当不同领域的多个相互作用的代理人做出的决定，(B)许多随机性和中断潜力的来源，(C)具有连锁故障潜力的强相互作用的网络元素，以及(D)分层过程，其特点是在上层进行强有力的集中控制，在较低层具有高度分散的松散耦合。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This Rapid Response Research (RAPID) grant will document and investigate the deployment and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccines as a large-scale complex extreme logistics event. Given the unique unprecedented scale, magnitude and urgency of this operation, and its fast-moving nature, it is imperative to document its development and deployment, and extract lessons for the planning, design and operation of future extreme logistical operations. Controlling the virus through vaccination will normalize economic and social life in the US and around the world, reopening vital local, regional, and international economies. Given the huge toll of lost lives, productivity and economic output, along with poor educational and mental health outcomes, it is imperative to take stock of the vaccine deployment process, extracting lessons for future extreme logistical operations including future pandemics, health threats, and responses to major natural and man-made disasters. This study will document in real-time the state of the COVID-19 vaccine supply chain, including vaccination rates over time, provide interim guidance for the latter portions of the continuing deployment process, and extract lessons learned and principles for the robust design and resilient operation of future extreme logistics deployments, including other health-related crises and disaster response situations. The study findings will help address questions about (1) the capacity of the US logistics system and overall biopharma supply chain to deliver vaccine at the desired scale and in the desired urgent time frame, (2) the time frames required to reach target vaccination levels, (3) the main vulnerabilities in the vaccine supply chain and distribution process, (4) resilience of the overall supply chain viz. disruptions due to various sources, (5) equity of the logistical processes in terms of reaching traditionally underserved populations, and (6) the value of real-time information in enhancing the robustness and resilience of extreme logistics processes and building public trust in these processes. This work will be further informed by an advisory board of experts and stakeholders engaged in the distribution process. The scientific significance arises from the unprecedented scale, urgency and complexity of the logistics processes, featuring (a) decisions made by multiple interacting agents from considerably different domains, (b) many sources of stochasticity and disruption potential, (c) strongly interacting network elements with potential for cascading failure, and (d) hierarchical processes featuring strong centralized control at upper levels with highly decentralized loose coupling at lower levels.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.