Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Volatility Shocks, Financial Frictions, and Labor Force Reallocation

该奖项的全部或部分资金来自《2021年美国救援计划法案》(公法117-2)。虽然人们已经承认，波动性冲击(增加的不确定性)会增加公司的破产风险并导致经济衰退，但普遍的假设是，劳动力完全可以免受这些破产的影响。这一假设背离了劳动力对陷入财务困境的公司的反感。本项目将重点关注这一方面，考虑到劳动力意识到企业的破产风险，并要求更高的工资来补偿预期的损失。在这一框架内，积极的波动性冲击放大了不同杠杆率公司之间的补偿性工资差异，推动劳动力从高杠杆率公司重新分配到杠杆率较低的公司。该项目将开发一个模型，并使用劳动力数据；该研究将检验波动冲击对劳动力重新配置的假想效果。该项目将探索相应的福利含义，这将具有潜在的劳动力市场政策含义。本研究将使用雇主-雇员匹配的数据来展示新的经验事实，即波动性与劳动力市场结果之间的关系如何取决于公司的财务状况。该项目将建立在这样一个假设之上，即更高的波动性会增加公司的破产风险。劳动力对企业的破产风险不感兴趣。因此，高杠杆率的公司更难雇佣劳动力，这将影响劳动力工资和就业。劳动力将重新配置到杠杆率较低的企业，这意味着劳动力在企业之间的配置偏离了最优水平。该项目考虑的机制将有助于解释为什么劳动力市场在金融危机期间受到不利影响。雇主和雇员匹配的数据将有助于控制企业和劳动力的特征。该项目将探讨在公司财务状况的背景下补偿工资差异的作用。这项研究将进一步阐明企业异质性在商业周期中的作用。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2). While it has been acknowledged that volatility shocks (increasing uncertainty) can raise firms’ bankruptcy risks and generate recessions, general assumption is that labor force is perfectly insured from these bankruptcies. This assumption deviates from the notion that labor force is averse to financially distressed firms. This project will focus on this aspect by considering that labor force is aware of firms’ bankruptcy risks and require higher wages to compensate for expected losses. Within this framework, a positive volatility shock amplifies the compensating wage differentials across firms with different leverage, driving labor force reallocation from highly leveraged firms to less leveraged firms. This project will develop a model and using data on labor force; the research will test the hypothesized effect of volatility shocks on labor force reallocation. The project will explore the corresponding welfare implications, which will have potential labor market policy implications.This research will use employer-employee matched data to show new empirical facts of how the relationship between volatility and labor market outcomes depends on firms’ financial conditions. The project will build on the hypothesis that higher volatility increases firms’ bankruptcy risks. Labor force is averse to firms’ bankruptcy risks. Thus, it is harder for highly leveraged firms to hire workforce, which will affect labor wages and employment. Labor force will reallocate to less leverage firms, implying the allocation of labor force across firms deviates from the optimal level. The mechanism considered in the project will be useful in explaining why the labor market was adversely affected during the financial crisis. The employer-employee matched data will be helpful in controlling the characteristics of firms and workforce. The project will explore the role of compensating wage differentials within the context of firms’ financial conditions. The research will further shed light on the role of firm heterogeneity over business cycles.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.