(HNDS-R) Hierarchical Networks of International Order and International Conflict

国际秩序对国际冲突有着深刻的影响。然而，秩序对冲突的影响，以及冲突对秩序的影响是复杂的，而且人们对秩序的影响知之甚少。此外，用于帮助决策的历史类比绝大多数来自西方世界的关系。本研究采取了多维度的方法来提高我们对国际秩序与冲突关系的理解。为了阐明将秩序与冲突联系起来的机制，研究小组使用了计算网络模型，这些模型来源于广泛的历史案例，将国家行为的动态与国际体系层面的秩序模式联系起来。为了探索这些模型的效用，该团队开发了政治秩序和系统不确定性的新网络测量方法，并对支持秩序的个人层面决定因素进行了跨国调查研究。该项目有几个更广泛的影响：(1)它有助于提高对秩序-冲突关系的理解；(2)进一步拓展了国际秩序研究的地理边界和对西方世界以外秩序的支持；(3)它为有意义地加强国家安全的政策建议提供了更具体的基础。本研究的目标包括建立国际秩序、国内政治秩序与冲突的计算网络模型；将这些模式扩展到西方世界之外，特别是融入东方对秩序的理解；这些模型在原始多国调查数据上的验证和校准；并发展了原有的网络秩序测度和不确定性测度。这些项目将使研究小组更好地了解国际秩序的不同结构对冲突的影响，通过在我们对国内不稳定的集体理解中增加国际层面来改进对政治不稳定的预测，更好地了解非西方国际秩序对冲突的影响，并提供基础知识，以支持旨在利用国际秩序促进和平、缓解不稳定的外交政策战略。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

International orders have a profound impact on international conflict. Nevertheless, the effects of order on conflict and vice-versa are complex and poorly understood. Moreover, historical analogies that are used to aid policy decisions are overwhelmingly drawn from relationships in the Western world. This research takes a multidimensional approach to improving our understanding of the relationship between international order and conflict. To shed light on the mechanisms that connect order to conflict, the research team uses computational network models, derived from a broad array of historical cases, that connect the dynamics of state behavior to patterns of order at the level of the international system. To explore the utility of those models, the team develops new network measures of political order and systemic uncertainty and conducts cross-national survey research into the individual-level determinants of support for order. The project has several broader impacts: (1) it contributes to an improved understanding of the order-conflict relationship; (2) it further expands the geographic boundaries of the study of international order and support for order beyond the Western world; and (3) it provides a more concrete foundation for policy recommendations that meaningfully enhance national security.The goals of this research include the development of computational network models relating international order, domestic political order, and conflict; the extension of those models beyond the context of the Western World, specifically to incorporate Eastern understandings of order; the validation and calibration of those models on original, multi-country survey data; and the development of original network measures of order and uncertainty. These projects will give the research team a considerably better understanding of the implications of different configurations of international order for conflict, improve forecasts of political instability by adding an international dimension to our collective understanding of domestic instability, provide a better understanding of the implications for conflict of a non-Western international order, and provide foundational knowledge to underpin a foreign policy strategy designed to leverage international order to produce peace and mitigate instability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.