ERI: Analyzing the Impact of Outdoor Water-Use Restrictions and the COVID-19 Pandemic on Water Consumption in Massachusetts

该奖项全部或部分由《2021年美国救援计划法案》（公法117-2）资助。这个工程研究启动（ERI）项目将提供对马萨诸塞州室外用水限制对水消耗的影响的关键理解。尽管相对充足的降雨量和对取水的规定，马萨诸塞州的供水仍然很紧张。因此，公共供水商往往被监管当局要求执行室外用水限制。这些限制是复杂的、不统一的和有争议的，COVID-19大流行是另一个混杂因素。该项目是美国首个在全州范围内实施的此类项目，将(a)提供新的见解，以促进主要流域规模的综合水资源管理，(b)提供全面分析，为监管行动提供信息，以及(c)使公共供水商更好地了解影响限制效力的因素。此外，该项目将确定大流行的影响，从而提供有关马萨诸塞州供水系统恢复能力的知识，并为确保在未来不可预见的条件下供水提供重要经验教训。最后，这个项目将为本科生和硕士生提供有意义的研究经验，包括那些少数民族/代表性不足的群体，从而产生宝贵的好处，如增加独立性和内在的学习动机。该项目包括开发一个面板回归模型，并辅以对公共供水管理人员的访谈。面板回归将基于11年来马萨诸塞州所有公共供水供应商的月度数据，用水作为因变量，用水驱动因素作为自变量。消费驱动因素主要分为三大类：水文气象条件（如降水、温度和干旱状况）、消费者特征（如收入、家庭规模和政治派别）和公共供水供应商管理决策（如限制的严重性和时间、促进节约用水和定价）。将使用其他独立变量来表示不透水区域或绿色区域，并说明大流行病的存在和严重程度。与水资源管理者的访谈将用于创建指导小组回归的发展和解释的故事情节。访谈问题侧重于需求和干旱管理，以及疫情如何影响用水量。该项目将首次对美国任何地方的用水限制进行全州范围的评估，将深入了解基于干旱的限制和永久性限制的有效性，并将确定疫情对用水的影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).This Engineering Research Initiation (ERI) project will provide critical understanding of the impacts of outdoor water-use restrictions on water consumption in Massachusetts. Despite relatively abundant rainfall and regulations on water withdrawal, Massachusetts’ water supplies are stressed. Consequently, public water suppliers are often required to implement outdoor water-use restrictions by the regulatory authority. These restrictions are complex, non-uniform, and contentious, and the COVID-19 pandemic is yet another confounding factor. This project, the first of its kind to be implemented at a state-wide scale anywhere in the United States, will (a) provide new insights to facilitate integrated water resources management at the scale of major river basins, (b) provide comprehensive analysis to inform regulatory action, and (c) empower public water suppliers with improved understanding of the factors influencing restriction effectiveness. Furthermore, this project will identify the impact of the pandemic, thus providing knowledge about the resilience of Massachusetts’ water supply systems and revealing important lessons for ensuring water supply under future unforeseen conditions. Lastly, this project will provide meaningful research experiences for undergraduate and master students, including those in minority/underrepresented groups, resulting in valuable benefits such as increased independence and intrinsic motivation to learn.The project consists of developing a panel regression model, complemented by interviewing public supply water managers. The panel regression will be based on 11 years of monthly data across all Massachusetts’ public water suppliers, with water consumption as the dependent variable and drivers of consumption as the independent variables. The consumption drivers fall into three main categories: hydrometeorological conditions (e.g., precipitation, temperature, and drought status), consumer characteristics (e.g., income, household size, and political affiliation), and public water supplier management decisions (e.g., restriction severity and timing, promotion of water conservation, and pricing). Additional independent variables will be used to represent impervious or green area and to address the presence and severity of the pandemic. The interviews with water managers will be used to create storylines that guide the development and interpretation of the panel regression. The interview questions focus on demand and drought management and on how the pandemic has affected water consumption. The project will provide the first state-wide assessment of water-use restrictions to be performed anywhere in the United States, will generate insight on the effectiveness of both drought-based and permanent restrictions, and will identify the impacts of the pandemic on water consumption.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.