National parks, nature-based tourism and demographic change in Germany: potential effects on visitor numbers, visitor structures and spatial and temporal movement patterns

国家公园及其保护大规模生态过程和为游客提供娱乐机会的双重目标，需要有目的地管理游客流量。为了成功，游客管理策略必须针对不同游客群体不断变化的需求而量身定做。影响德国户外娱乐需求的一个主要趋势是人口结构的变化。这项研究的目的有两个。第一个目标是预测人口变化对德国14个国家公园游客数量的影响。这一预测是基于国家公园的集水区面积、源头地区的人口预测和描述出行行为的基本参数，这些参数来自“Reiseanalys”的纵向数据。第二步，在贝希特斯加登国家公园对游客的空间和时间行为进行调查，以初步估计游客的这种行为可能会因人口变化而发生变化。因此，分析不同年龄组之间是否存在任何差异，以及是否可以确定使用模式发生重大变化的任何阈值。时间和空间行为通过GPS记录器记录下来，而个人和访问特征则通过问卷获得。分析这些特征，特别是对户外娱乐的限制感知，以了解与年龄相关的差异存在多大程度，以及它们对空间行为有什么影响。在户外娱乐研究的背景下，GPS跟踪和地理信息系统分析方法的好处反映在近年来的许多应用中。预期研究的方法论目标是将现有程序结合起来，并将其转移到山区环境中，以及展示自动化的一些可能性。

The national parks and its dual objectives of protecting the large-scale ecological processes and providing the recreational opportunities for visitors, requires a purposeful management of the visitor flows. To be successful, visitor management strategies must be tailored to the changing needs of different visitors groups. One major trend affecting the demand for outdoor recreation in Germany, will be the demographic change. The aim of this research is twofold. The first aim is to forecast the effects of the demographic change on the visitor number of the 14 German national parks. This forecast is based on the catchment area of the national parks, the population projection of the source regions and of basic parameters, describing the travel behavior, derived from the longitudinal data of the 'Reiseanalyse'. In a second step, the spatial and temporal behavior of visitors is investigated in Berchtesgaden national park, to give a first estimate on how this behavior of visitors may alter due to the demographic change. Therefore it is analyzed, if there are any differences between different age groups and if any thresholds can be identified, where significant changes in the usage patterns occur. Temporal and spatial behavior is recorded with the help of GPS-loggers, while personal and visit characteristics are obtained through questionnaires. These characteristics, especially the perception of constraints to outdoor recreation, are analyzed to see how far age-related differences exist and what influence they have on spatial behavior. The benefits of the methods of GPS-tracking and GIS-analysis, in the context of outdoor recreation research, are reflected in numerous applications in recent years. The methodological objective of the intended research is to combine the existing procedures and transfer them to a mountain context, as well as to show some possibilities of automation.