DDRIE: Emigration: A Blessing or a Curse: Empirical Evidence

虽然经济学家对国际移民对目的国的社会经济影响了解很多，但由于数据限制和选择问题，移民对来源国的长期影响仍然不清楚，也难以衡量。因为只有最有能力和创业精神的人才会移徙，对原籍国造成经济损失。另一方面，移民可能会汇款，并可能带着促进经济发展的新技能回到祖国。这个研究项目将使用关于国际移徙的独特档案数据，并结合有关来源国当代经济状况的数据和创新的方法来研究国际移徙对来源国的影响。独特的历史数据，结合创新的研究方法，将使研究者能够克服迁徙研究中的选择问题。这一研究项目的结果使人们更好地了解国际移徙对来源国和目的国的好处。研究结果还将为移民来源国和目的地国的移民政策提供参考。该DDRIE结合了地方层面的历史和当代数据来研究国际移民对来源国的影响。为了构建自变量，研究人员将收集并数字化每个曾在军队服役的士兵的个人档案，其中包含他们的出生地点、出生年份、部署地点和任务团等详细信息。该研究利用人口普查数据、卫星数据和人口与健康调查（DHS）来衡量地方一级的经济发展。初步结果表明，在军队中被征召的士兵总数的条件下，被征召的士兵人数与当前经济发展的几项措施和来自来源区的高移民率呈正相关。这一研究项目的结果将使人们更好地了解国际移徙发生的机制以及这种移徙对来源国和目的地国的好处。研究结果还将为移民来源国和目的地国的移民政策提供参考。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

While economists know a lot about the socio-economic effects of international migration on the destination countries, the long-term impact of migration on source countries remains unclear and difficult to measure due to data limitation and selection issues. Because only the most able and entrepreneurial migrate, there are economic losses to countries of origin. On the other hand, migrants may send remittances and may return to their home countries with new skills that boosts economic development. This research project will use a unique archival data on international migration merged with data on contemporary economic conditions in source countries and innovative methodology to study the effects of international migration on source countries. The unique historical data, combined with the innovative research methods will allow the researchers to overcome the selection problems in the studies of migration. The results of this research project provide a better understanding of the benefits of international migration to both source and destination countries. The results will also inform migration policies in both source and destination countries.This DDRIE uses a combination of local level historical and contemporary data to study the effects of international emigration on source regions. To construct the independent variable, the researchers will collect and digitize individual conscripted soldier files containing detailed information such as their place of birth, year of birth, station of deployment and regiment of assignment, for each soldier who ever served in the army from archival sources. The research measures economic development at the local level using census data, satellite data and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Preliminary results suggest that conditional on the total number of soldiers enlisted in the army, the number of soldiers who were conscripted is strongly positively correlated with the several measures of current economic development and high emigration rates from source regions. The results of this research project will provide a better understanding of the mechanisms through which international migration occur as well as the benefits of such migration to both source and destination countries. The results will also inform migration policies in both source and destination countries.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.