Assessing the Expectations Gap: Impact on Critical Infrastructure Service Providers and Consumers Preparedness, and Response

虽然社区生命线服务提供者和地方应急管理人员必须保持协调一致的反应和恢复计划，但他们的时间表可能不符合当地生命线服务消费者的期望。事实上，消费者很可能对生命线恢复抱有不切实际的期望，这可以解释目前备灾水平不足的原因。这种假设的期望差距很少受到关注，因为工程研究通常关注提供者的能力，而灾害研究关注家庭和企业的准备。该项目的成功完成将为政府机构、生命线提供者和消费者提供强有力的证据，以解决预期差距，进而促进适当的准备行动，提高社区的复原力。该项目将通过促进利益相关者之间的信息交流，为更广泛的卡斯卡迪亚地区和其他遭受大地震的地区的消费者和生命线提供者带来显著的社会效益。我们重点关注能源、水、废水和通信，这些领域的恢复对于限制级联损害和快速恢复社区功能至关重要。我们的项目将通过评估消费者（家庭、企业主/经理、非营利组织经理）对生命线系统性能的期望来解决这个问题，并将其与震后灾害情景（卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带9.0级或以上地震之后）中两个社区（kirkland和Shoreline， WA）的生命线提供商的能力进行比较（在这种情况下可能会经历最大的震动）。该项目的研究目标是确定和量化危险事件中关键生命线系统性能的社会期望与这些系统的计划恢复力（避免故障/恢复服务的时间表）之间差距的决定因素。我们将解决以下研究问题：1)消费者认为地震对关键生命线破坏的可能程度和恢复的时间表是什么？2)消费者目前对生命线中断的准备程度如何？3)生命线提供商和独立工程专家认为提供商维护和恢复生命线服务的能力是什么？4)消费者的期望与供应商的能力相比如何（期望差距）？5)本研究关于期望差距的反馈将如何影响消费者和提供者的生命线弹性期望，以及他们的缓解和准备意图？我们的研究方法通过第二轮数据收集的反馈信息共享，确保少数民族居民和企业直接受益于这项研究。本研究的结果将提高消费者的准备和生命线提供者的恢复能力。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

While community lifeline service providers and local emergency managers must maintain coordinated response and recovery plans, their timelines may not match expectations of local consumers of lifeline services. Indeed, it is quite likely consumers have unrealistic expectations about lifeline restoration, which could explain current inadequate levels of disaster preparedness. This hypothesized expectation gap has received little attention because engineering research typically addresses providers’ capacities, whereas disaster research addresses household and business preparedness. Successful completion of this project will provide government agencies, lifeline providers, and consumers with strong evidence to address the expectations gap and, in turn, promote appropriate preparedness actions that will increase community resilience. This project will produce significant societal benefits to consumers and lifeline providers in the broader Cascadia region, and other areas exposed to major earthquakes by facilitating an informed information exchange among stakeholders. We focus on energy, water, wastewater, and communication, whose restoration is critical for limiting cascading damages, and for rapid recovery of community functions.Our project will address this issue by assessing consumers’ (households, business owners/managers, nonprofit managers) expectations about lifeline system performance, and comparing them to lifeline provider capacity in a post-hazard event scenario (following a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake of 9.0 magnitude or greater) in two communities—Kirkland and Shoreline, WA (likely to experience most shaking in this scenario). The research goal of this project is to identify and quantify determinants of the gap between societal expectations of critical lifeline systems performance in a hazard event and the planned resilience (avoiding failures/ timeline for service restoration) of these systems. We will address the following research questions: 1) What do consumers think is the likely level of critical lifeline disruption from an earthquake and the timeline for restoration? 2) What are consumers’ current levels of preparedness for lifeline interruption? 3) What do lifeline providers and an independent engineering expert think are providers’ capabilities to maintain and restore lifeline services? 4) How do consumers’ expectations compare with providers’ capabilities (expectations gap)? 5) How will this study’s feedback about the expectations gap affect consumers’ and providers’ lifeline resilience expectations, as well as their mitigation and preparedness intentions? Our research methodology ensures that minority residents and business will directly benefit from this research through feedback information sharing in second round of data collection. Outcomes of this research will enhance consumers’ preparedness and lifeline providers’ recovery capacity.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.