EAR-Climate: Mountain Glacier Contribution to Sea Level CE 1900-2100

近几十年来，山区冰川的面积和质量一直在急剧缩小，这种加速的冰川消退对全球各地的高山系统和下游社区产生了巨大影响。这些不断缩小的山脉冰川也可能导致海平面上升，但这种影响的预测比对极地冰盖的预测要少得多。其原因包括：(1)大量山地冰川及其各自的复杂性；(2)现代卫星对冰川体积变化的观测大多限于过去20年，这不足以校准冰川动力学模型；(3)模拟数千条高山冰川的冰川变化及其对固体地球反应的影响的计算能力有限。本项目的目标是准确预测全球各地的山地冰川融化速度，以及对全球和地方范围海平面上升的影响，并评估冰川变化对社会的影响。后者将包括对受冰川变化影响的社区的风险评估，以及移民等适应战略。将准备一部纪录片，讲述冰川融水从诞生于安第斯山脉冰峰一直到太平洋的旅程，进而记录从冰川到海洋对社区的影响。这部电影将说明为改进气候变化对下游影响的预测而建立模型的过程，并将在网络流媒体平台上向广大观众提供。全球冰川加速质量损失正在影响社会，并对持续和加速的海平面上升做出重大贡献。初步估计，对气候变暖高度敏感的山地冰川可能会导致海平面上升半米，但这些预测的不确定性仍然远远高于极地冰盖的不确定性。该项目将整合上个世纪的冰川观测，并将它们纳入全球冰川变化时间序列。这一时间序列将通过人工智能方法、CE 2100冰川学模型、与山脉冰川变化相关的均衡调整的固体地球模型、确定社会和经济成本最高地区的社会影响科学以及一流的解决战略来开发。这项研究将量化自小冰期(约公元1850年)以来的山脉冰川变化在多大程度上反映在海平面上升中，以及这些环境变化如何影响冰川下游人口稠密地区和近岸社区。为了实现这一目标，该项目将使用尖端方法，从新的观察到基于人工智能的建模到社会影响科学工具，这些方法将广泛适用于地球科学和社会交界处的其他问题。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The area and mass of glaciers in mountainous regions have been shrinking dramatically in recent decades, and this accelerating glacier retreat impacts alpine systems and downstream communities dramatically around the globe. These shrinking mountain glaciers may also contribute to sea-level rise, yet the predictions of this influence are much less quantified than those for the polar ice sheets. Reasons for this include: (i) the large number of mountain glaciers and their individual complexities; (ii) modern satellite observations of glacier volume change are mostly limited to the last 20 years, which is not long enough to calibrate glacier dynamic models; (iii) the limitations in computing power to model glacier change for thousands of alpine glaciers and their impacts on the solid-earth response. The goals of the current project are to provide accurate predictions of mountain glacier melt rates across the globe together with the contribution to sea-level rise on the global and local scale, and to evaluate the impacts of glacier change on societies. The latter will include an assessment of risk for communities impacted by changing glaciers together with adaptation strategies such as migration. A documentary film will be prepared that narrates the journey of the glacial meltwater from its birth at the icy peaks of the high Andes all the way to the Pacific Ocean, in turn documenting the impacts on communities from the glacier to the ocean. The film will illustrate the process of building models for improved predictions of downstream effects of changing climate and will be available to a wide audience on web-streaming platforms.The accelerating mass loss of glaciers around the globe is impacting societies and contributing significantly to ongoing and accelerating sea-level rise. Initial estimates predict that mountain glaciers, which are highly sensitive to warming climate, might contribute up to half a meter to sea-level rise, but the uncertainties of these predictions remain considerably higher than those for the polar ice-sheets. This project will integrate glacier observations over the last century, and include them in a global glacier-change time-series. This time series will be developed by artificial intelligence methods, glaciologic modeling through CE 2100, solid earth modeling of isostatic adjustment related to mountain glacier change, and societal impact science that identifies areas of highest societal and economic costs, together with first-order solution strategies. The research will quantify to what degree mountain glacier changes since the end of the Little Ice Age (about CE 1850) are reflected in sea-level rise, and how these environmental changes affect densely populated regions down-stream of glaciated areas and near-shore communities. To achieve this goal, the project will use cutting-edge methodology, from new observations to artificial-intelligence-based modeling to societal impact science tools, that would be widely applicable to other problems at the interface of Earth Science and society.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.