NNA Incubator: Collaborative Research: Historical Ecology of the Pacific Cod Fishery

导航新北极（NNA）是美国国家科学基金会的十大构想之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。这项北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA支持从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，加强正式和非正式教育的努力，并在适当情况下整合知识的共同生产。该奖项通过支持具有明确潜力的规划活动，以开发新颖，领先的研究理念和方法来实现NNA目标，从而实现了该目标的一部分。它整合了 自然环境和社会系统的各个方面， 解决了重要的社会挑战， 建立了重要的教育机会， 与当地和土著社区合作。海洋热浪导致沿海渔业严重减产。尽管这些热浪影响了各地的渔业，但它们对北极的影响既严重又特别难以预测。然而，预测海洋热浪的时间、范围和后果越来越重要，因为预计它们的强度将继续上升。该项目使用海洋历史生态学框架来调查气候和鳕鱼种群在多个时间尺度上变化的模式和后果。它结合了考古、历史、气候学、土著知识和生物记录的数据，以了解北极气候、人类、鱼类和海洋生态系统之间的动态相互作用。该项目支持对众多学生的培训，巩固融合的多机构伙伴关系，并将成果广泛传播给学术和非学术受众及利益相关者。该项目的目标是组成一个综合研究小组，以太平洋鳕鱼为个案研究，探讨长期数据与当代渔业管理的相关性。具体而言，本研究以跨学科的海洋历史生态学框架为指导，该框架着眼于长期记录，包括考古、古气候、历史、基因组和土著知识，以捕捉长期的生态和社会变化，并为当前管理提供信息提供历史背景。该项目追求以下目标：1)了解如何在渔业管理中使用长期数据并提出建议；2)评估是否存在有助于理解近期气候变化和渔业崩溃的历史类似物；3)优先考虑与当地居民合作，利用他们对当地环境条件和历史先例的专家观察。随着越来越难以预测的海洋状况威胁到整个北极地区成熟渔业的稳定，气候准备至关重要。本项目通过解决反映气候行动多个领域的长期数据在多大程度上捕捉到有助于预测短期数据中不太明显的现代气候现象的趋势，从而有助于实现这一目标。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. This Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, enhances efforts in formal and informal education, and integrates the co-production of knowledge where appropriate. This award fulfills part of that aim by supporting planning activities with clear potential to develop novel, leading edge research ideas and approaches to address NNA goals. It integrates aspects of the natural environment and social systems, and addresses important societal challenges, builds significant educational opportunities, and engages with local and Indigenous communities. Marine heat waves have resulted in dramatic production failures among coastal fisheries. Although these heat waves have affected fisheries everywhere, their effects in the Arctic have been both acute and particularly difficult to predict. Yet, predicting the timing, extent, and consequences of marine heat waves is increasingly critical as their intensity is predicted to continue to rise. This project uses a marine historical ecology framework to investigate patterns and consequences of climatological and cod population changes over multiple timescales. It combines data from archaeological, historical, climatological, Indigenous Knowledge, and biological records to understand the dynamic interactions among climate, people, fish, and marine ecosystems in the Arctic. The project supports the training of numerous students, solidifies convergent, multi-institution partnerships, and disseminates results broadly to academic and non-academic audiences and stakeholders. The goal of this project is to form a convergent research team to address the relevance of long-term data to contemporary fisheries management, using Pacific cod as a case study. Specifically, this research is guided by an interdisciplinary, marine historical ecology framework that looks to long-term records, including archaeological, paleo-climatological, historical, genomic, and Indigenous Knowledge, to capture a long range of ecological and social variability and to provide an historical context for informing current management. The project pursues the following objectives: 1) to understand and make recommendations for how long-term data might be used in fisheries management; 2) to assess whether there are historical analogs that could help understand recent climate changes and fisheries crashes; and 3) to prioritize collaboration with Native residents, drawing on their expert observations of local environmental conditions and historical precedents. As increasingly unpredictable marine conditions threaten to destabilize well-established fisheries across the Artic, climate readiness is critical. This project contributes to this aim by addressing the extent to which long-term data reflecting multiple domains of climate action capture trends that facilitate prediction of modern climate phenomena that are less apparent in short-term data.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.